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Discussion Starter #1
Seeing as we need more topic threads...

what are our mathematical chances here? :angel:
 

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Well, the gap with the nr 2 Greece is 4 points and with the nr 3 Latvia 3 points. 4 points with 3 games to go means slim chances to qualify but not at all impossible. The group is very unpredictable. I mean, Switzerland are leading the table now while after their home loss against Luxembourg some people already said the Swiss team was a disaster. Greece then looked untouchable but now got a 0/6 against the Swiss (the same Swiss who were beaten by Luxembourg) and suddenly have to fear for qualification. The Latvians were the ones nobody paid attention to but seem to be the dark horse of the campaign, however I don´t believe their defensive tactics will keep on working like the way it has worked out for them so far. In the end the group is unpredictable and any team seems to be able to beat any other team - the fact that the group leaders lost to Luxembourg says it all.

So chances may be slim but they are still there. Imagine Greece dropping some more points... then Switzerland may already be qualified by the last game and this may mean they will field some reserves, resulting in an Israeli win. If the home games against the weak ones (Lux. and Moldova) are won... well, a 9/9 would still very likely take Israel to the second place. Greece and Latvia still face each other so one of them will surely drop points, and then they may still drop some more points (is Switzerland still facing Latvia?)

I think we must support the Swiss now. Especially if they still need to face Latvia. In the Latvia-Greece encounter at least one of them will drop points. If Switzerland could take some more points from Latvia Israel at least leapfrogs them. Plus, if Switzerland wins the next two games they are likely already qualified and no longer motivated by the time Israel travels to Switzerland. So I´d say we must count on the Swiss for one, and just remember that a lot of surprising results have occurred so far, Israel won´t be the only team that drops points unexpectedly.

As long as it´s mathematically possible we must believe in it, and I would even say that the chances are still realistic. But then a 9/9 is a MUST. The moment Israel drops more points now, then it´s really over. With a 9 out of 9 in the remaining games, I still think the nr 2 spot should be a fact.

PS firing Kashtan now, as much as he messed up, is a bad idea because a new coach means
a) players and coach needing time to get to know each other well
b) new tactical plan maybe, players needing time to adapt to that

In the crucial phase of the qualifiers, stability is needed, so I would not fire Kashtan now especially since Luxembourg and Moldova are that weak that any coach (even Kashtan) will be able to get a win against them. I´d wait until after the Switzerland away game to draw conclusions. Fact is: this was a relatively easy group, failing to reach the play offs should indeed mean that Kashtan has to go. But I would not fire him straight away, just to somewhat keep the rest within the selection in this crucial stage.
 

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Well, the gap with the nr 2 Greece is 4 points and with the nr 3 Latvia 3 points. 4 points with 3 games to go means slim chances to qualify but not at all impossible. The group is very unpredictable. I mean, Switzerland are leading the table now while after their home loss against Luxembourg some people already said the Swiss team was a disaster. Greece then looked untouchable but now got a 0/6 against the Swiss (the same Swiss who were beaten by Luxembourg) and suddenly have to fear for qualification. The Latvians were the ones nobody paid attention to but seem to be the dark horse of the campaign, however I don´t believe their defensive tactics will keep on working like the way it has worked out for them so far. In the end the group is unpredictable and any team seems to be able to beat any other team - the fact that the group leaders lost to Luxembourg says it all.

So chances may be slim but they are still there. Imagine Greece dropping some more points... then Switzerland may already be qualified by the last game and this may mean they will field some reserves, resulting in an Israeli win. If the home games against the weak ones (Lux. and Moldova) are won... well, a 9/9 would still very likely take Israel to the second place. Greece and Latvia still face each other so one of them will surely drop points, and then they may still drop some more points (is Switzerland still facing Latvia?)

I think we must support the Swiss now. Especially if they still need to face Latvia. In the Latvia-Greece encounter at least one of them will drop points. If Switzerland could take some more points from Latvia Israel at least leapfrogs them. Plus, if Switzerland wins the next two games they are likely already qualified and no longer motivated by the time Israel travels to Switzerland. So I´d say we must count on the Swiss for one, and just remember that a lot of surprising results have occurred so far, Israel won´t be the only team that drops points unexpectedly.

As long as it´s mathematically possible we must believe in it, and I would even say that the chances are still realistic. But then a 9/9 is a MUST. The moment Israel drops more points now, then it´s really over. With a 9 out of 9 in the remaining games, I still think the nr 2 spot should be a fact.

PS firing Kashtan now, as much as he messed up, is a bad idea because a new coach means
a) players and coach needing time to get to know each other well
b) new tactical plan maybe, players needing time to adapt to that

In the crucial phase of the qualifiers, stability is needed, so I would not fire Kashtan now especially since Luxembourg and Moldova are that weak that any coach (even Kashtan) will be able to get a win against them. I´d wait until after the Switzerland away game to draw conclusions. Fact is: this was a relatively easy group, failing to reach the play offs should indeed mean that Kashtan has to go. But I would not fire him straight away, just to somewhat keep the rest within the selection in this crucial stage.
Agree with your analysis.

Now the roles are inverted. Yesterday we supported Greece and cheered for the Swiss to lose points, but now in theory the Greeks are still touchable.

Next round Latvia will host Switzerland and this will be a very intresting game because now the Latvians will play at home and very motivated.
And Greece is likely to collect three points in Moldova.

Anything could happen like you said.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
So should we depend on a scoring insane game with Luxemborg in order to increase our chances on Goal Differentials for second?
 

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MP W D L GF GA Pts
Switzerland 7 5 1 1 13 6 16
Greece 7 4 1 2 12 6 13
Latvia 7 4 1 2 11 6 13
Israel 7 2 3 2 10 9 9
Luxembourg 7 1 2 4 3 13 5
Moldova 7 0 2 5 2 11 2

If we look at this table, we are 7 away from Switzerland and with only 3 games left, it's highly improbable to get 1st, as for second we are 4 points away from both Greece and Latvia and our goal difference is 1 compared to Latvia's 5 and Greece's 6, Greece has 3 easy games left away at probably the worst team in the group Moldova and at home against Luxembourg and Latvia, so I think they will get second, because we can only get a max of 18 points, by winning all 3 games, but if Greece beats Moldova away and Luxembourg at home then they will have 19, so no 2nd place, as for 3rd place Latvia is hosting Switzerland and Moldova and also away game at Greece, It's safe to say they will only get 3 points against Moldova at home, so Latvia will probably finish with 16 points, let's look at Israel's games now, Moldova and Luxembourg at home should be easy wins, because we have barely any chance at qualifying, so 6 points from them, which brings us to 15, 1 point under Latvia, and we play Switzerland away as our last game, the best team in the group away..................... I don't think we will win, but if we draw somehow we will be equal points as Latvia, right now they have a goal difference of 5 compared to our 1, let's say they drop 3-4 goals against Switzerland and Greece, and gain 1-2 goals against Moldova, that puts them at 3-4 maybe even 2 goal difference, Now if we take the scenario of Israel and Latvia being level on points, Israel would not lose any goals, because they would not lose any games, what they have to do is destroy both Moldova and Luxembourg and they should take 3rd place on goals difference.


That's my 2cents, my prediction is that we finish 4th with 15 points, because we lose to the Swiss, because even if we get 3rd from Latvia, we don't deserve it.
 

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We need to cheer for Switzerland to win this group. That means beating Latvia so that a win versus Luxembourg gets Israel in 3rd position ahead of Latvia again. Then if Switzerland is qualfied already on the last day, they may field a reserve team and make it easier for Israel to grab victory there. The problem is mainly that Greece has an easy program, hopefully Moldova or Luxembourg can pull of a shock result against the Greeks but I fear it ... but as long as it´s possible in theory, we should have hope.
 

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In theory it is still possible, but the fact that we are needing all this miracle to qualify in such a group it means we don´t deserve to qualify. But of course as a fan i will support until the end no matter what.

Actually i am more worried in reaching third place, so at least we could manage to keep a place on Pot 3 for the next draw. Because apparently we will be out of Pot 2.
 

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That sounds bad ... but a drop from pot 2 to 4 is unlikely or am I wrong? Because that would mean about 8 other countries would need to leapfrog ... But even pot 3 can be nasty, with some bad luck you got England and Holland in a group and then, even if you´re the third best in theory, chances are minimal.

PS: I don´t really like the whole pot system. A fair draw is a totally neutral one. All in the same pot, and just let the neutral hand decide. If the likes of San Marino, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg end up in 1 pot, so it be. If a country is really a top nation in football, then why do those self-proclaimed top teams need all that protection in the draw? Open draw is still the fairest, coefficients sorta try to reduce football to logics and maths but that doesn´t work out well. In the end I guess UEFA doesn´t have the guts to "unprotect" the big guns and risk sponsorship losses when some big nations don´t qualify (although they´d recover some of that because a qualifier between England and Germany will bring in a lot of cash just like if they were to play each other at the tournament)
 

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That sounds bad ... but a drop from pot 2 to 4 is unlikely or am I wrong? Because that would mean about 8 other countries would need to leapfrog ... But even pot 3 can be nasty, with some bad luck you got England and Holland in a group and then, even if you´re the third best in theory, chances are minimal.

PS: I don´t really like the whole pot system. A fair draw is a totally neutral one. All in the same pot, and just let the neutral hand decide. If the likes of San Marino, Liechtenstein and Luxembourg end up in 1 pot, so it be. If a country is really a top nation in football, then why do those self-proclaimed top teams need all that protection in the draw? Open draw is still the fairest, coefficients sorta try to reduce football to logics and maths but that doesn´t work out well. In the end I guess UEFA doesn´t have the guts to "unprotect" the big guns and risk sponsorship losses when some big nations don´t qualify (although they´d recover some of that because a qualifier between England and Germany will bring in a lot of cash just like if they were to play each other at the tournament)
Well you are suggesting a system just like our State Cup over here where, Maccabi Haifa and Beitar Jerusalem can meet right on the Round of 32. This normally led to some not so big finals and teams like Hapoel Ramat Gan, Bnei Sakhnin, Rishon Lezion to represent us in Europe by winning or being runner up on the State Cup.

In terms of qualifiers IMO the pot system is not in order to protect the top nations, but rather to give them a sort of merit for their previous results and history.
I mean, imagine Italy, current Champions of the World to face, England, Holland, Spain and Germany in the same group. The chances of qualifying aren´t exactly high as only one of them would go straight to the WC.

You should also give mertis for those who put effort and win, Israel managed to reach pot 2 for their own effort and that is the beauty of the game.

Imagine all these top countries left out of the WC? What would be left to watch in the best part of the WC? San Marino vs. Kazakhstan? With all the respect to these countries.
 

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Okay, another round played, it's time to revise the israel's chances of qualifying.
MP W D L GF GA Pts
Switzerland 8 5 2 1 15 8 17
Greece 8 4 2 2 13 7 14
Latvia 8 4 2 2 13 8 14
Israel 8 3 3 2 17 9 12
Luxembourg 8 1 2 5 3 20 5
Moldova 8 0 3 5 3 12 3

Alright, as we can see we were the only winners last night, Latvia drew Swiss and Greece drew Moldova, we still have virtually no chance of first, but our chances for second have improved a lot, we are only 2 points away from both Latvia and Greece, not to mention we have the best Goal difference in the whole group, so let's look at our last games, Moldova should be an easy match, they are the worst team in this campaign and they are playing away, so I think we will win, the next match would be against Switzerland away, they our the best team in the group, but honestly that's not saying much, we need a win here, so we have to go all out, and this might be Kahstan's last match, so he would be motivated to win and put up a good squad, now let's look at Greece's and Latvia's matches, they will face off against each other in Greece, the best result we can hope for is a draw then we would be in 2nd place with the better goal difference(provided we beat Moldova at home of course) If either Greece or Latvia win, it's over for Israel, since they will have easy home matches, but even if one of them wins we can still get third if we beat the Swiss.

My prediction is............. ah screw, you can't predict this group, literally anything can happen, but if we win both of our last games, we are guaranteed 3rd place and if Latvia and Greece draw we could possibly get 2nd place on goal difference.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
technically speaking there is 81 chances we have in this group from now until mid october when the last whistle is rung .....81 chances!!!
 

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I think the best chance scenario is if Latvia & Greece draw, and we win out (and we win on goal differential.

I would say that there is a 25% chance of a greece/latvia draw in greece.

I would say we have a 90% chance of beating moldova

I would say if switzerland has already won the group, we have a 30% chance of beating them at home (switzerland playes luxembourg away in their 9th game. Assuming they win that and latvia ties, they will have clinced the group) We will have something to play for, they will treat it like a friendly and rest their top players.

we currently have a 2 goal differential over greece, they would need to beat luxembourg by more than 4 goals to tie us (assuming we win both games by one goal) I would say there is a 50% chance that occurs

we currently have a 3 goal differential over latvia, they would need to beat moldova by more than 5 goals to tie us (assuming we win both games by one goal) I would say there is a 10% chance that occurs

Given my percentages, I would say Israel has a 3% chance of getting second place in the group.
 

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I think the best chance scenario is if Latvia & Greece draw, and we win out (and we win on goal differential.

I would say that there is a 25% chance of a greece/latvia draw in greece.

I would say we have a 90% chance of beating moldova

I would say if switzerland has already won the group, we have a 30% chance of beating them at home (switzerland playes luxembourg away in their 9th game. Assuming they win that and latvia ties, they will have clinced the group) We will have something to play for, they will treat it like a friendly and rest their top players.

we currently have a 2 goal differential over greece, they would need to beat luxembourg by more than 4 goals to tie us (assuming we win both games by one goal) I would say there is a 50% chance that occurs

we currently have a 3 goal differential over latvia, they would need to beat moldova by more than 5 goals to tie us (assuming we win both games by one goal) I would say there is a 10% chance that occurs

Given my percentages, I would say Israel has a 3% chance of getting second place in the group.


Good analysis. But looking on a positive side, this might be good. The NT usually plays better when they aren´t under pressure:D

Switzerland has everything to go through in first place. A win against Luxembourg will make their passport to South Africa 99% guaranteed and they at least secure a playoff spot.

The BEST AND ONLY result that intrests Israel is a draw between Greece and Latvia. A win by either side means our chances go from 3% to 0,0001%. Greece plays Luxembourg in the last round while Latvia plays at home against Moldova, which means they are likely to collect three points, so even if we beat the Swiss we are out.

But this group has given us some intresting surprises. Let´s see if some more is to come.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
The last game for Latvia is Moldova. Assuming they win them....we need to focus on making the same sort of high scoring type game because if Greece and Luxemborg play last...assuming that Greece still has a chance, than currently, they have +6 in Goal differences. We need to score a good 4-5 goals vs. Moldova so we can have some assurance ahead of Switzerland and have the Greeks win at home vs. Luxembourg but not in atleast we got more GD than they do. Luxembourg always plays for the pleasure of it and they aren't really motivated by 5th or 6th places rather than by a momentous win or a tie......

Some things to think (outside of the box) on:

Latvia - Coming to the Greek game, it will be there biggest game. Ofcourse they would want a win, but Greeks aren't that easy to play. They have won them before but things were different. Latvia picked up and now they are more than ready to test the Greeks who seem to not be motivated by their fans. Latvia is in a nervous but serious position.

Greece - knowing that there chances have faltered in Moldova and Swiss matches, they may wanna have the same strategy as Israel. I think they will look carefully and hopefully get a high scoring game against Luxembourg in the last match regardless of tie/win in Latvia just to assure them a spot in 2nd place. So expect a repeat of 9.9.9 for the Greeks....
 

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with one difference, Greece doesn´t have the power up front to score 7, even against Luxembourg. Israel has by far the best frontline in this group, while Greece and Switzerland rely more on organisation and a tough defense. Especially Greece is a team relying on a strong organisation and not conceeding a lot. Even against Luxembourg, they won´t score 7... If it comes down to goal difference, Israel should win it with ease. Just to be on the safe side though, the players should try to "do a Luxembourg" against Moldova. OK, maybe 7-0 is unrealistic, 4-0 or so definitely possible.


PS: if you think of how politics in the middle east have screwed Israel ... In Asia, Bahrain has just grabbed the playoff spot. Bahrain which has about the population of the Tel Aviv agglomeration. if Israel were still in the Asian zone, they would have played the world cup already numerous times, Israel is better than 90% of the AFC (only Australia, Japan, South Korea would maybe be better while with Iran, Saudi and on a good day China it could be a tough call ... but for sure Israel would have qualified for numerous tournaments already)
 

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Discussion Starter #17
with one difference, Greece doesn´t have the power up front to score 7, even against Luxembourg. Israel has by far the best frontline in this group, while Greece and Switzerland rely more on organisation and a tough defense. Especially Greece is a team relying on a strong organisation and not conceeding a lot. Even against Luxembourg, they won´t score 7... If it comes down to goal difference, Israel should win it with ease. Just to be on the safe side though, the players should try to "do a Luxembourg" against Moldova. OK, maybe 7-0 is unrealistic, 4-0 or so definitely possible.
I see Greece trying to pull of a tie at most against Latvia and then going and winning big against Luxembourg. They have beaten them...away 4-0 so i dont know what would make them stop at that.
Yes! Israel has the most GD in the group, but we only got +2 extra goals than Greece and Greece can surely top that in the Luxembourg game when all else is the same with the Moldovan and Swiss games....

Im really thinking that either Latvia stuns Greece or Greece stuns Latvia....I have a hard time thinking this game is going down at a tie...


PS: if you think of how politics in the middle east have screwed Israel ... In Asia, Bahrain has just grabbed the playoff spot. Bahrain which has about the population of the Tel Aviv agglomeration. if Israel were still in the Asian zone, they would have played the world cup already numerous times, Israel is better than 90% of the AFC (only Australia, Japan, South Korea would maybe be better while with Iran, Saudi and on a good day China it could be a tough call ... but for sure Israel would have qualified for numerous tournaments already)
You know..just to think of all the tournaments we missed since the 1970's mean nothing to Israel.

We seem to think that we deserved to be in the 1982 WC or 1994 WC when in reality we are just talking like an agnostic person. No one proves us data that we could do it. Nor the remedy that we could have actually succeeded well in Asia. Our football competes in such a magnificent level both in the NT and in the league because of our involvement in Europe. Its a long hard road to make any achievements..especially since our 1990 Playoff run with Colombia, but i feel Israeli soccer is playing at a higher level than ever before thanks to UEFA and in character creating a stonger football establishment in Israel.

Im not gonna think for a second how good/bad it would be if we sticked with Asia and had all this political nonsense of playing KSA and Iran for the finals.......:rolleyes:
 

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PS: if you think of how politics in the middle east have screwed Israel ... In Asia, Bahrain has just grabbed the playoff spot. Bahrain which has about the population of the Tel Aviv agglomeration. if Israel were still in the Asian zone, they would have played the world cup already numerous times, Israel is better than 90% of the AFC (only Australia, Japan, South Korea would maybe be better while with Iran, Saudi and on a good day China it could be a tough call ... but for sure Israel would have qualified for numerous tournaments already)
The most ironic of all is that Israel is one of the founders of the Asian Football Association and if i am not mistaken with Iran:D
Kind of unimaginable eh?

In Asia Israel would surely be qualified for every tournament, Australia has entered the qualifiers only for this WC 2010. The only teams to give Israel a hard time would be Japan, South Korea and now Australia.
Iran on a lesser extent could make things tough, but Israel is FAR better.
 

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The most ironic of all is that Israel is one of the founders of the Asian Football Association and if i am not mistaken with Iran:D
Kind of unimaginable eh?

In Asia Israel would surely be qualified for every tournament, Australia has entered the qualifiers only for this WC 2010. The only teams to give Israel a hard time would be Japan, South Korea and now Australia.
Iran on a lesser extent could make things tough, but Israel is FAR better.
your tone is the same tone i heard from IFA, the coach, the NT and the fans about WC 2010 that it will be easy. Today is September 12 and we have 2 games left and we are in 4th place..having ditched first place (and not even clinched it once) numerous times.

Dont think that playing Thailand or Pakistan would make us great or that we would just beat them 5-0 on every encounter. Heck...we had a tough time with Australia and New Zealand. And lets be frank here....we only made it to WC 1970 because DPR Korea refused to play us....you forgot that DPR Korea is going to the WC and were still trying to do our best to make it.

Like I said, if we havent been kicked out of the IFA i dont know where Benayoun, Berkovic, Rozenthal, Ginzburg or even O'hana would have played in (European team wise) and excelled at what they do so well that they use that to get us wins in the NT.....
 

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your tone is the same tone i heard from IFA, the coach, the NT and the fans about WC 2010 that it will be easy. Today is September 12 and we have 2 games left and we are in 4th place..having ditched first place (and not even clinched it once) numerous times.

Dont think that playing Thailand or Pakistan would make us great or that we would just beat them 5-0 on every encounter. Heck...we had a tough time with Australia and New Zealand. And lets be frank here....we only made it to WC 1970 because DPR Korea refused to play us....you forgot that DPR Korea is going to the WC and were still trying to do our best to make it.

Like I said, if we havent been kicked out of the IFA i dont know where Benayoun, Berkovic, Rozenthal, Ginzburg or even O'hana would have played in (European team wise) and excelled at what they do so well that they use that to get us wins in the NT.....
I agree. It made us better to play in Europe. Our players got more developed in every sense. And our clubs financially got better aswell.

Kappa, i sounded a bit too optimistic like Luzon and his lads? Well simple. There is a BIG difference between Greece and Pakistan. The Greeks are much stronger and have much more quality.
 
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