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Well maybe the cycle would also apply to foreign leagues as well.

Its interesting what happens. There are always clubs that get into trouble and re-surge but Juventus, Milan seem to always be in the hunt for the scudetto and Inter always seems to make it into the top 4.

In the last 15 years we have seen teams like Napoli, Sampdoria, Lazio, Fiorentina and Parma fall by the way side. But during that time we have seen Udinese, Chievo, and more recently Palermo move up the pecking order.

It seemed that 7 years ago there were 7 strong teams: Parma, Juve, Inter, Milan, Fiorentina, Lazio and Roma.

These days its only 2 or 3.

But I believe that in future Italy will once again have 7 strong teams.

I think we are seeing the birth of this already.

I have noticed that a lot of the promising Italian players are no longer looking to move to a big club as they get wasted on the bench - many of them seem to now believe in teams like Udinese, Palermo, Cagliari etc etc.

This year, its almost certain that Udinese, Sampdoria or Palermo will join Inter, Juve and Milan in the Champions League. If they can do OK and get into the champions league for a 2nd consecutive year, we could see the birth of a new force - this is what happened to Sampdoria and Napoli in the late 80s - which saw Italian teams rule in Europe and saw and Italian national team which was of such high quality that they SHOULD have won the world cup.

The downturn occurs when the money gets spent unwisely on primmadonnas and then they have a bad year, and then this prompts big sales and inevitably the demise of an era.

I think Italy is about to enter into a sweet spot in its football cycle.
 

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Catenaccio said:
There are always clubs that get into trouble and re-surge but Juventus, Milan seem to always be in the hunt for the scudetto and Inter always seems to make it into the top 4.
I wonder why...

Within the next 10(or even more) years no other club than those 3 will win the scudetto.
 

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il_principe said:
I wonder why...

Within the next 10(or even more) years no other club than those 3 will win the scudetto.
actually, about 10 years i thought exactly the same thing. i would never have imagined that Lazio or Roma could pull it off like they did a few years later. :)

and the interesting thing is that Inter's still waiting ;)
 

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Vagabondo said:
actually, about 10 years i thought exactly the same thing. i would never have imagined that Lazio or Roma could pull it off like they did a few years later. :)

and the interesting thing is that Inter's still waiting ;)
Yes, but the difference is that the inflated and hyped tv-market has died out once and for all now - there will be no more iniatives like Cragnotti's or Sensi's around the millenium. I frankly cannot see any other team win it for a long long time, they'll split it between them for 10-15 years easy.
 

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Cacìni said:
Yes, but the difference is that the inflated and hyped tv-market has died out once and for all now - there will be no more iniatives like Cragnotti's or Sensi's around the millenium. I frankly cannot see any other team win it for a long long time, they'll split it between them for 10-15 years easy.
i understand your point about the big gap in revenue between the big 3 and the rest, but these things can change (although it's unlikely in the next few years). Cragnotti and Sensi came in from absolutely nowhere, it could always happen again.

it would have to be on a larger scale, but who's to say that an Abramovich or even a big foreign company won't walk in and turn an Italian club into something like Chelsea? (don't forget how close we came to becoming Nafta Rometsk ;) ). I know it's MUCH harder in Italy than in England, but it's always a possibility in a market economy.

Besides, there's other things on the horizon. the big clubs all have financial problems, and there's strong teams being assembled in Palermo and Samp, for example. they don't have the muscle for now, but they seem well run at least. Centres like Palermo are big enough to sustain a competitive team, it's not "una squadra provinciale" like Udinese.

Also don't discount the league coming up with ridiculous regulations requiring teams to field home grown players if Italy is shocking at the next world cup (or doesn't even qualify). it's talked about often and even UEFA is adopting a policy similar to this. it's unlikely for anything drastic to happen (especially with Galliani running the league) but it would throw the scudetto race wide open. Roma would be back in with a chance at least, anyway. :)
 

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Cacìni said:
Yes, but the difference is that the inflated and hyped tv-market has died out once and for all now - there will be no more iniatives like Cragnotti's or Sensi's around the millenium. I frankly cannot see any other team win it for a long long time, they'll split it between them for 10-15 years easy.
You never know. Some shugardaddy á la Abramovich might come a long and make Roma, Lazio, Parma or some other club as competetive as Chelsea are. It's a long shot though..
 

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il_principe said:
i don't want no sugardaddy as you have in agnelli.
if you enjoy sitting on his lap, good for you though...
the Agnelli family haven't bankrolled Juve for decades, we are an independant financial entity.

Try again.
 

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Agnelli's are involved as shareholders, but they do not pump in the money into the team anymore.
 

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Vagabondo said:
i understand your point about the big gap in revenue between the big 3 and the rest, but these things can change (although it's unlikely in the next few years). Cragnotti and Sensi came in from absolutely nowhere, it could always happen again.

it would have to be on a larger scale, but who's to say that an Abramovich or even a big foreign company won't walk in and turn an Italian club into something like Chelsea? (don't forget how close we came to becoming Nafta Rometsk ;) ). I know it's MUCH harder in Italy than in England, but it's always a possibility in a market economy.

Besides, there's other things on the horizon. the big clubs all have financial problems, and there's strong teams being assembled in Palermo and Samp, for example. they don't have the muscle for now, but they seem well run at least. Centres like Palermo are big enough to sustain a competitive team, it's not "una squadra provinciale" like Udinese.

Also don't discount the league coming up with ridiculous regulations requiring teams to field home grown players if Italy is shocking at the next world cup (or doesn't even qualify). it's talked about often and even UEFA is adopting a policy similar to this. it's unlikely for anything drastic to happen (especially with Galliani running the league) but it would throw the scudetto race wide open. Roma would be back in with a chance at least, anyway. :)
Well, yes, but it's not constructive to just lean back and say that some rich owner will come in from nowhere and take over a team, making them challengers over night. It could very well happen, and as you say, Roma were very close to becoming essentially the force in Italian football a little over a year ago. But as things are now, nothing will change, the differences will only be bigger.

A new Sensi or Cragnotti is nothing anyone can count on, and there's just as big chance that someone like that won't pop up as the chances are they will.
 

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In my opinion, the future of Italian football is bright. I think the top leagues go through this cycle of good and bad spells, with new clubs being born or revived to add competition to the pot, and of course all top clubs go through this same cycle.

The club that I think could take a top role in Serie A is Palermo, as they have serious aspirations of becoming one of the best clubs in Italy. Thus far Palermo has put their money to good use, and if they can hold onto players such as Barzagli, Santana, and Toni they might become a force to be reckoned with. Not sure of their financial backing, however with Guidolin at the helm and the possibility of some big name signings they seem to be in good shape.

Fiorentina also seems to be coming back to life, however Dino Zoff is not the right coach for that side. He always complains about how Fiorentina are being set up for failure and how football is too "political," not being able to make do with the squad he has at the moment. I think over the next few seasons La Viola will also experiance a renaissance, especially since they have talented youngsters such as Bojinov, Pazzini, Maresca, Obodo, and Donadel. Of course if Fiorentina can obtain more quality players and keep hold of the ones they have, anything is possible.

Sampdoria has been doing very well this season, as Novellino has made his side into the third best in Serie A because of solidity at the back. Sampdoria has virtually spent nothing in the past year, however they are still one of the top teams in Italy, making do with what they have. However I do not see Sampdoria becoming a consistent power house because they lack financial backing and talented youngsters. These sort of teams, much like Real Sociedad a couple seasons ago who almost won La Liga with a limited squad, usually fall off the following season because they just do not have enough quality to continue on their winning ways. Sampdoria is a compact side, however I see them as a selling one too, probably letting go of Falcone and Palombo over the summer. I like Sampdoria and hopefully they can become a consistent force, however I doubt they will.

Udinese is in contention, however I have a feeling that Pizzaro and Jankulovski will move on in the summer, and the results for the club will show next season.

So if Italy is lucky we will have six sisters by 2007: Juventus, Milan, Inter, Fiorentina, Palermo, and Roma. Not sure about Napoli but if they have decent financial backing, sounds like they will, they might have a chance as well.
 

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Andy said:
Sampdoria has been doing very well this season, as Novellino has made his side into the third best in Serie A because of solidity at the back. Sampdoria has virtually spent nothing in the past year, however they are still one of the top teams in Italy, making do with what they have. However I do not see Sampdoria becoming a consistent power house because they lack financial backing and talented youngsters. These sort of teams, much like Real Sociedad a couple seasons ago who almost won La Liga with a limited squad, usually fall off the following season because they just do not have enough quality to continue on their winning ways. Sampdoria is a compact side, however I see them as a selling one too, probably letting go of Falcone and Palombo over the summer. I like Sampdoria and hopefully they can become a consistent force, however I doubt they will.
Lack of talented youngsters? Our Youth sucks but our management is very good in getting the players of the other clubs (in particular Atalanta).
You will hardly see Sampdoria buy a galactico :D but you will hardly see a sale. bazzani excluded, but the reason of it is clear and unfortunately Sampdoria will hardly get some money from this deal.
Palombo won't be sold. Falcone is free at the end of the season, he has to choose whether to leave or to sign a new contract.

And back to the topic: I think that it will be a three horses race for at least 5 years. Just a different sharing of the money coming from TVs could change things.
 

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Nero said:
the Agnelli family haven't bankrolled Juve for decades, we are an independant financial entity.

Try again.
Exactly.
 

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Cacìni said:
Yes, but the difference is that the inflated and hyped tv-market has died out once and for all now - there will be no more iniatives like Cragnotti's or Sensi's around the millenium. I frankly cannot see any other team win it for a long long time, they'll split it between them for 10-15 years easy.
Roma may fall into the hands of a tycoon (Italian or most probably foreign). This is what I believe will happen one day.
Historically Milan-Inter and Juve have always been the dominat force in Football, atleast in the last 50/60 years or so. Basically among the Big 3, it's only Inter, despite having spent like no other team on the Planet in the last decade, that has failed to win something.
 
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