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Does the draft system need a change?

  • Yes, implement the Draft Wheel

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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/86940/the-nbas-possible-solution-for-tanking-good-bye-to-the-lottery-hello-to-the-wheel

It is a proposal which is seriously considered by the league office and might be presented to the owners to vote on in early 2014. So the gist of it is that to eliminate tanking, all teams are entered into a 30-year cycle where they have predetermined draft positions regardless of the results of any particular season. It would mean the end of tanking (a huge positive) and would also eliminate the practice of protecting picks (a minor positive as well because the current trades and picks quagmire is a bit hard to follow from a fan's perspective).

Every team would be guaranteed one top-six pick every five seasons, and at least one top-12 pick in every four-year span. The proposed wheel looks like this:



Now the huge positive is the end of tanking, but still I don't believe this would actually work in long-term. Because the fatal flaw in this system is that it considers all 30 franchises to be on equal opportunity basis which simply is not true. Large-market teams like Lakers and Knicks and Nets have much more money flowing in from TV rights and marketing than teams on small markets like Milwaukee, Sacramento or OKC. The current system is foolproof in this sense: if you suck, you get the opportunity to get better every year by adding great young players on your roster every year on rookie wage scale.

But with the draft wheel the small-market franchises would get screwed fast and it would hurt the league long-term. Which is why I don't think this change will be accepted, it would be just too risky.

I would love to see the tanking gone, though. So instead of the wheel I would simply change the lottery system to reward the bottom teams less. Currently the 1st seed has 50 times better chance to get the top pick than the 14th seed and almost 15 times better chance than the 9th seed. I would improve the chances of the teams who have narrowly missed playoffs by giving them better draft lottery odds: let's say 14th seed has 10 times worse chance than 1st seed and 9th seed about 4 times worse. It would mean there's less point to try and end up at the very bottom because more is left to the chance. So it makes more sense to try and push for the playoffs. But in long term it would still mean that the teams who miss playoffs regularly are put to a better position to improve.
 

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Discussion Starter #2
I made a random draw of how the draft would look like with the Wheel system if implemented immediately:

Magic would have this season's #1 pick, followed by Mavericks next season and Wizards in 2016.

Pacers would have #2 pick in 2014 and therefore would add at least one more young superstar to an already great roster. Cavs would have the #2 pick in 2015 and Knicks in 2016 (but of course has to give it up to Denver lol).

Wolves would get the valuable #3 pick in this draft, while Thunder would have it next season and Suns in 2016.

The team which would have to wait with the the #1 pick the longest, until 2043, is Warriors. Bucks would have to wait their guaranteed 1st pick until 2042 and Rockets until 2041.
 

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A lot of the small markets like Sacramento are in danger. This wheel program has the potential to make things worse than they already are. I think you've summed up all the main points. They need some kind of alternate method to this wheel.
 

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Laziale, Independent
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The facts that changes are floating around is a positive sign overall.

I am also in favor of changes but to be more carefully assessed in order to have the small market teams more equality.
 

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What about 30-spots on the wheel, with only 14 teams able to compete.

Worst - 4
2nd - 4
3rd - 3
4th - 3
5th - 3
6th - 2
7th - 2
8th - 2
9th - 2
10th - 1
11th - 1
12th - 1
13th - 1
14th - 1

Not sure if that's too close to what is already in place.
 

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The one who was Bella
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Taking the last 3 orso years into account and not just the record of 1 specific year is the best way I'd say to really balance it out and let the worst teams benefit.

like teams who were really really bad for years like Sacramento, Charlotte etc and not because they choose to be are the ones who need to get rewarded.

I wouldn't mind The Wheel though.
 

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Third Place Winner, December 2011 Photo Contest
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It's stupid that a wheel gets to decide the future of young athletes or even lottery balls and potential multi millionaires have to be NCAA slaves before being paid.

Just put a hard cap on salaries, remove the draft and the one and done crap. **** max salaries, pay a player what you want. Hard cap the salaries at 75M. It's ****ing stupid these arbitrary rules and regulations put up by old farts to make sure they make a profit regardless of the crap team they put out on the floor.
 

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What would happen if Miami had the upcoming number one pick? LBJ, Wade, Bosh, and Embiid... Not to mention fans of small market teams that are struggling and know the don't have a top pick soon will lose interest.

Also allows prospects to wait out a couple years to enter the draft when a big market team has the fist pick.
 

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Discussion Starter #10
What would happen if Miami had the upcoming number one pick? LBJ, Wade, Bosh, and Embiid... Not to mention fans of small market teams that are struggling and know the don't have a top pick soon will lose interest.

Also allows prospects to wait out a couple years to enter the draft when a big market team has the fist pick.
:eek:

Pretty sure they'd rather go for somebody else with a #1 pick ...Smart would probably be the best fit for their lineup.

IMO there are 4 players who would already be able to contribute significantly on NBA level: Parker, Wiggins, Smart and Randle. The others (Embiid, Gordon, Exum etc.) are prospects who might turn out great but also might not.
 

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:eek:

Pretty sure they'd rather go for somebody else with a #1 pick ...Smart would probably be the best fit for their lineup.

IMO there are 4 players who would already be able to contribute significantly on NBA level: Parker, Wiggins, Smart and Randle. The others (Embiid, Gordon, Exum etc.) are prospects who might turn out great but also might not.
I think Exum is a better prospect than Smart, but both can turn out to be star types.

Hopefully this is the year where the lottery helps the East become a better Conference.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
I think Exum is a better prospect than Smart, but both can turn out to be star types.
based on what? Exum hasn't really been tested outside of international junior bball which isn't really much of an indicator.

I wonder how much of those who hype him have actually seen him play other than the McDonalds game...
 

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The one who was Bella
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I'm sure the NBA owners would love to have a hard-cap, the players and the player union are the ones to blame there.

I wish we'd have it in the NBA, but unless the players accept for some reason then I doubt it'll ever materialized.
 

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The one who was Bella
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I'd take Embiid too if I were Miami btw.

He has the highest potential in the draft and shows uncanny ability to learn and understand the game in such a small time - and he seems to get better on a game to game basis.

I'm leaning more and more towards him being the number 1 pick when it's all said and done.

Smart doesn't live up to his name as far as his game goes to me - he really likes to force things and play hero-ball.. his shot selection is horrific and his decision making is very questionable.

Exum is a very intriguing prospect and I was quite impressed in the U-19 world championship - would be really interesting to see if he can actually improve his ball handling and decision making enough to play point guard - I think he won't though from what I saw of him, but he's extremely young.

Smart's body and defense probably gives him the edge cause he's a bullet proof bet on the defensive side of the floor in the next level, and would likely be a Jrue Holiday meet Tyreke Evans type player in the pros if I had to pin him down + -.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
I'd take Embiid too if I were Miami btw.

He has the highest potential in the draft and shows uncanny ability to learn and understand the game in such a small time - and he seems to get better on a game to game basis.

I'm leaning more and more towards him being the number 1 pick when it's all said and done.
People are seeing a new Hakeem in him for a variety of reasons...way too early to think he's really all that though. I would take Parker, Wiggins, Randle and Smart all over him as things currently stand. They all have what it takes to make it as stars in NBA and could be successful starters there already in this season. Not sure about it yet when it comes to Embiid and Exum.
 

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Most teams are looking for a player that's a score machine, one they can build around on. You can always find a basic big man for rebounding and rim protection.

From what I've seen in Parker I think he would be the ideal SAFE #1. He finishes ridiculously well in traffic, amazing perimeter shot, fluid pull-up jumper, excellent decision maker, attracts defenders and then comfortably dishes the ball to the open man. Perhaps his main weakness he needs to work on is defense but surely he'll develop that in the NBA like most players.

I need to see more of Wiggins and Randle. The impression I have of Randle is more like a Zach Randolph kind of a guy. I think he'll be great in the NBA but ATM I think Parker's value and versatility look greater.

Wiggins has amazing speed sometimes bringing memory flashes of Westbrook/OKC. His defense is pretty good, but he needs to work on creating his own shot. There will be games where he'll have to play half court in the NBA and he has to be able to handle situations by creating something on his own. He also needs to bulken up if he wants to play as a small forward. His frame is small. He reminds me to a small extent of Paul George but he's still developing.

But again these are based on just early games. Lets wait for the NCAA tournament to finish to get an overall evaluation and impression.
 

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10'un Adi Lefter
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Why not make it an actual lottery i.e. the worst 14 teams get equal chances. I think this would definitely help curb tanking much better than any other proposal. Hopefully Silver shakes up things. I'd like this along with the abolishment of divisions. Best 16 records make it in to the playoffs.
 
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