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If Mexico beats Ecuador
If Italy beats Mexico
If Croatia beats Ecuador

Italy, Mexico and Croatia would all finish 2-1.
Would it then come down to goal differential or would some head to head result favor Italy in any way?
 

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If team are level on points, then they will be seperated by goal difference. If they are still level on goal difference, then a head-to-head result will be used. If there is still no winner then teams will be drawn out of a hat to go through to the next round :)
 

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In case if it is a tie:

1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Head-to-head points
5. Head-to-head goal difference
6. Head-to-head goals scored
7. Lot (lottery, drawn out of a hat)

Ciao,
Tommi
 

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One goal enough for Italy Sunday 9 June, 2002

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Group G remains in the balance as despite winning both their opening games, Mexico are still not assured of qualification.

Following this morning¡¦s result ¡V Mexico-Ecuador 2-1 ¡V Italy now know what it is they need to do in order to go through to the second round.

The Azzurri must beat Mexico by one clear goal in the deciding match next Thursday. Currently Italy have a goal difference of +1 (3 scored, 2 conceded), while Mexico are on +2 (3 scored, 1 conceded).

A win would automatically put Italy ahead of Mexico in the standings as although both would end on 6 points, it would lower the Central American goal difference.

However, even a draw could be enough for Giovanni Trapattoni¡¦s men if Croatia should fail to beat Ecuador in their final clash.

In this case scenario, Mexico would win the Group with 5 points, followed by Italy and Croatia on 4. The Azzurri would take second place on goal difference.

Croatia have a goal difference of 0 (scored 2, conceded 2), while Ecuador are virtually ¡V if not mathematically ¡V out of the running with a ¡V3 goal difference (4 conceded, 1 scored).

In a worst case scenario, Italy could plausibly lose to Mexico and still qualify in second place.

If Ecuador beat Croatia then all three teams would finish level on 3 points. Goal difference again comes into play and if Italy do not lose by more than one clear goal and Ecuador do not beat Croatia by more than three, the Azzurri would qualify.

As the current goal difference is Italy +2, Croatia 0 and Ecuador ¡V3, even losing to Mexico by 2 clear goals could still see them through based on Ecuador lowering Croatia¡¦s average.

Both games will be played on Thursday at 12.30pm BST.

Scenarios:

Italy beat Mexico AND Croatia beat Ecuador ¡V Italy and Croatia qualify

Italy beat Mexico AND Croatia fail to beat Ecuador ¡V Italy and Mexico qualify

Italy beat Mexico AND Ecuador beat Croatia by three clear goals ¡V Italy and Ecuador qualify

Italy draw with Mexico AND Croatia draw with Ecuador ¡V Italy and Mexico qualify

Italy draw with Mexico AND Croatia beat Ecuador ¡V Mexico and Croatia qualify

Italy draw with Mexico AND Ecuador beat Croatia ¡V Italy and Mexico qualify

Italy lose to Mexico AND Croatia beat Ecuador ¡V Mexico and Croatia qualify

Italy lose to Mexico AND Croatia draw with Ecuador ¡V Mexico and Croatia qualify

Italy lose to Mexico by less than 2 clear goals AND Ecuador beat Croatia by less than three clear goals ¡V Mexico and Italy qualify

Italy lose to Mexico by more than 2 clear goals AND Ecuador beat Croatia by three clear goals ¡V Mexico and Ecuador qualify

channel4
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it's a good news that italy only need to score a goal to qualify...italy have to keep a clean sheet and keep attack attack and attak in the mexico game...
 

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Italy just needs to win the match and that is what they should go for, or else things will get very complicated. The math is simple, win and you are through to the next round, loose or draw and others controls your fate.
 
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