[naervod]

This is it. With this loss at Genoa we have a real possibility of relegation. Five games left. Here is our schedule:

Inter (H)
Roma (A)
Napoli (H)
Livorno (A)
Fiorentina (H)

Here is the table as it stands (relegation battle only):

Siena 37
TORO 34
Catania 32
Cagliari 32
Parma 31
Reggina 30
Empoli 30
Livorno 29

Siena:
Genoa (H)
Napoli (A)
Juventus (H)
Inter (A)
Palermo (H)

Catania:
Lazio (H)
Udinese (A)
Reggina (H)
Juventus (A)
Roma (H)

Cagliari:
Empoli (H)
Inter (A)
Fiorentina (H)
Udinese (A)
Reggina (H)

Parma:
Napoli (H)
Reggina (A)
Genoa (H)
Fiorentina (A)
Inter (H)

Reggina:
Milan (A)
Parma (H)
Catania (A)
Empoli (H)
Cagliari (A)

Empoli:
Cagliari (A)
Genoa (A)
Udinese (H)
Reggina (A)
Livorno (H)

Livorno:
Roma (A)
Milan (H)
Atalanta (A)
Torino (H)
Empoli (A)

There are a huge number of factors deciding this one. Essentially, we want the title race to be prolonged as much as possible. There is no chance it will be decided next weekend even if Inter win and Roma lose and there is little chance it will be decided the weekend after when we play Roma. Basically, they are both playing their hardest against us and there is little chance that we will win. Those two are playing two relegation candidates on the last day and Inter faces Catania the day before, so hopefully they are still fighting for the title then.

The Champions League spots battle also affects us. We play only one Champions League spot team, and that is Fiorentina on the last day. We are the only team to play a CL spot contender on the last day, so we can hope the battle is wrapped up by then, specifically on Day 37 as out of the seven other teams here, there are nine matches with CL contenders before then.

Also, there are tons of relegation head-to-head matches here. For better or for worse, we are only involved in one of them. On the plus side this means that all the sides will be taking points from each other. On the minus side, we only have one opportunity to put ourselves "above" the pack. Hopefully we see alot of draws here.

On to our matches, we have a tough time. The magic number (the number of points traditionally needed to gain Serie A survival) is 37 though it was 40 last year and 41 three years ago. We have 34, so a win would help greatly. It will be difficult to find one though. Inter home and Roma away in crucial stages of the title race mean we will get 0 points from these two matches. I would be delighted if we got a point from either team. Next up is Napoli at home in Week 36. Napoli are solidly midtable but have very little chance of qualifying for the UEFA Cup which means in two weeks time they should have very little to play for. We drew at their place earlier in the season. Should be a winnable, if tough match that can all but guarantee safety as long as the other results are reasonably in our favor. The huge match though is against Livorno. The interesting thing is, we drew with Livorno 0-0 on week 37 last year to guarantee the survival of both teams. This time though it will probably not be the same as ATM Livorno are rooted to the bottom of the table. A win here definitely guarantees safety. Last up is Fiorentina at home. Like I said, we can at least get a point if they have nothing to play for.

Also, in the event of a tie, we have better head-to-head records against Catania and Reggina, worse against Siena, Parma, Cagliari, and Empoli, and TBD against Livorno (a loss, tie, or 1-0 win in ouur match with them would give us worse, a 2-1 win would make us even, and a win by at least two goals are by one goal as long as we score at least 3 would give us better).

My predictions (italics indicate winner, none indicates draw)

Week 34

Torino-Inter
Genoa-Siena
Lazio-Catania
Cagliari-Empoli
Parma-Napoli
Milan-Reggina
Roma-Livorno

Week 35:

Roma-Torino
Napoli-Siena
Udinese-Catania
Inter-Cagliari
Reggina-Parma
Genoa-Empoli
Livorno-Milan

Week 36:

Torino-Napoli
Siena-Juventus
Catania-Reggina
Cagliari-Fiorentina
Parma-Genoa
Empoli-Udinese
Atalanta-Livorno

Week 37:

Livorno-Torino
Inter-Siena
Juventus-Catania
Udinese-Cagliari
Fiorentina-Parma
Reggina-Empoli

If this is how the results stood after Day 37, we would be safe.

Week 38:

Torino-Fiorentina (if CL race is over)
Siena-Palermo
Catania-Roma
Cagliari-Reggina
Parma-Inter
Empoli-Livorno

Which would produce the following table:

Siena 39
TORO 39
Reggina 38
Parma 36
Cagliari 36
---
Catania 33
Empoli 32
Livorno 31

Satisfying to me, lets see if we can do it. And no matter what, win or lose, survive or relegate, FORZA TORO PER SEMPRE!:heart:

 

[chinaren]

wish the team show us a true TORO

 

[chinaren]

Napoli (H)

2008.5.4

 

[naervod]

Napoli (H)

2008.5.4

Important date , I really hope this can motivate the players.

 

[chinaren]

Important date , I really hope this can motivate the players.

http://www.archiviotoro.it/a/archivio/accaddeoggi/0405.asp


。。。。。。。。。。。not well

 

[Morierinho]

Hope you stay up... and fire Novellino

Reggina has the last 4 games against battlers.

 

[holofernes]

Apparently the Granata faithful have made their displeasure known directly....

http://www.channel4.com/sport/football_italia/apr15r.html

However, I find this to be very disturbing:

A few weeks ago the businessman had balked at the idea of a financial reward for avoiding relegation, but desperate times call for desperate measures.

“I am no longer going to rule that idea out. Nobody has asked me for a prize, but I am evaluating every possibility.

“If I believe a reward for achieving safety would be useful, then I can provide that.”

I'm sorry, but no bonuses for doing the least amount possible...merely avoiding relegation.

NO HEART = NO JOB

I'd much rather see spirited champions fighting their way through B than a bunch of overpaid posers running down the field with their hands out to the boss.

WRONG WRONG WRONG

 

[chinaren]

those who need financial reward are definitely not match up to GRANATA
that's not TRUE TORO SPIRIT

 

[naervod]

http://www.channel4.com/sport/football_italia/apr22t.html

Gianni De Biasi is confident Torino can escape relegation without needing to hope for other results. “We’ll write our own destiny.”

The Granata are still right in the thick of the battle to avoid Serie B, though they put in a good performance in the 1-0 defeat to Inter on Sunday night.

“I have really positive sensations and can see the team believes in what it is doing,” said the Coach who took over from Walter Novellino last week.

“I am not saying that to fire myself up, I really have been impressed. On Sunday I saw Torino play as a team, helping each other out all over the pitch.

“The lads gave a great response and that kind of performance should be a standard we aim for every week.

“I won’t make plans for the final rounds, as we have to focus above all on ourselves. We can write our own future, it is in our hands. However, I can say that on our current 34 points we are not safe yet.”

Toro are currently without Matteo Sereni and were only able to play goalkeeper Alberto Maria Fontana with the aid of the medical staff.

“He had rigid strapping around his ribs. He was very courageous and strong.”

David Di Michele and Alvaro Recoba were suspended for the Inter game, but have not been terribly impressive so far this season.

“I am keeping an eye on them, just as I do with all the players. During the week I will observe the signals they are sending out,” continued De Biasi.

 

[naervod]

I'm worried about our goalkeeping situation though it looks like Sereni will be ready for Roma.

Here is the table as it stands:

Siena 38
Catania 35
Cagliari 35
Torino 34
Parma 31
---
Livorno 30
Empoli 30
Reggina 30

Siena are probably safe (8 points clear with four games to go) so we will no longer include them in the fixture list.

This weekend's fixtures:

Genoa-Empoli
Inter-Cagliari
Livorno-Milan
Reggina-Parma
Roma-Torino

We actually beat Roma at this point in the season (Week 36 actually and the scudetto was decided, but now the scudetto is all but over anyways), so its not totally out of the question to ask for a result here. Still, I'd hope for a draw. Otherwise, I think results can go our way. Inter will want to be mathematically sure they can clinch the scudetto and would probably love to do it in the derby the weekend after and a win there would go a long ways towards achieving that aim. Milan are still locked in the fight for CL places and with Fiorentina taking on Sampdoria this would be the perfect opportunity to either gain huge ground on Fiorentina (if the Viola lose) or virtually lock up a European spot (if the Viola win) or do both (in the event of a draw), so they will be looking to give it their all in Livorno. Genoa still has an outside hope of European football (if Inter and Roma get to the Coppa Italia final they are currently in an Intertoto Cup spot, if not they are three points off it) so they should beat Empoli. Udinese is in a similar situation and will be looking to beat Catania, but I actually see a draw on the cards at the Friuli as Catania are one team that will certainly not just roll over. Reggina and Parma will take points from each other. The ideal result is probably a draw, second a Livorno win, but honestly, the two teams taking points from each other is enough.

We can do it, I'm sure of that!

 

[naervod]

An update on the situation:

Siena 39 pts
Catania 35
Cagliari 35
Torino 34
Empoli 33
---
Reggina 33
Parma 31
Livorno 30

Next weekend the fixtures are:

Atalanta-Livorno
Cagliari-Fiorentina
Catania-Reggina
Empoli-Udinese
Parma-Genoa
Siena-Juventus
Torino-Napoli

Our game with Napoli will fall on the exact date of the Superga anniversary. (59 years) Hopefully this means we will have some extra motivation and support from the home crowd. Napoli are a tough team, but we can pull off a result I think. Livorno are surely relegated if they continue to play like they today, though after Atalanta next week they have two head-to-heads, one with us and one with Empoli. Fiorentina will be needing a win at Cagliari and I really hope for our sake and theirs that they pull it off. I'm actually hoping for a Catania win at Reggina as that would certainly keep Reggina below us no matter what result occurs. Though obviously if we win something like a draw would be nice. Udinese also need the win and hopefully they can get it against a weird Empoli squad that normally sucks but on occasion can do something (like against Genoa today). Parma have been absolutely dire and although now Genoa have little left to play for, Borriello will be gunning for that capocannionere title and given the fact that Parma leak goals like a rickety ship leaks water Genoa can win. Siena are almost safe and playing their gobbimerda brothers so I'm not particularly interested in what goes on there. I kept them in even though I said I wouldn't since they've been part of this for a while.

I still have faith...:hopeful:

 

[chinaren]

if we lost in the Superga anniversary, we deserve to relegate

 

[holofernes]

Perhaps a team fieldtrip is in order prior to training on Friday.

Find some heart and field a win!

 

[Pavel]

Guys, I'm with you, I wish you all the best, you'll be staying up :thumbsup:

And I hope we have CL already secured before the last match... :depress:

 

[naervod]

Thanks for the kind words, Pavel.

Though it looks like neither of our teams will have anything decided on the last day.

Here's another update, the table after this week (Siena are officially safe and actually above a team that hasn't been mentioned here before, Lazio, but neither are going to mentioned):

Cagliari 38
Torino 37
Reggina 36
Catania 35
---
Parma 34
Empoli 33
Livorno 30

Next week's fixtures (involving relegation teams):

Fiorentina-Parma
Juventus-Catania
Livorno-Torino
Reggina-Empoli
Udinese-Cagliari

On paper Fiorentina, Juventus, and Udinese should all be able to win, and I think Cagliari has the best chance of pulling a result. Reggina-Empoli is great for us as it involves two teams below us taking points from each other. A draw would be good and even if we lost we would still be above Reggina thanks to a superior head-to-head record. We can relegate Livorno with just a draw at the Armando Picchi, though of course a win would be ideal and would absolutely guarantee us safety.

 

[Morierinho]

A draw and you're fine. :thumbsup:

 

[Pavel]

Fingers crossed for Livorno match, surely you can grab all 3 points there! Also because I fear in our current form we are able to lose to Parma :depressed:

 

[Nerazzurri4life]

Great news for you lot
http://www.gazzetta.it/Calcio/SerieA/Squadre/Livorno/Primo_Piano/2008/05_Maggio/06/livorno06.shtml

 

[naervod]

Yikes.

Regardless, we can't take this match for granted.