Poland will take this imo.
But to be honest, I have two feelings - either Poland's footballers will achieve semis or they will be a total disappointment and end as fourth team in a group. One thing for sure, that's MUCH more comprehensive team than all which we had within the last 20 years.
Especially our set-pieces quality may be the thing, which will be suprising the whole Europe, because we have perfect footballers to doing it well - Wasilewski, Perquis, Boenisch and Lewandowski as scorers and perfect freekicks and corners executors like Obraniak, Rybus and Blaszczykowski. Additionally we looked really well in positional attack against Slovakia, because we've already had MUCH more technical offensive formation (Lewandowski, Blaszczykowski, Obraniak, Rybus - all more or less the similar quality) than in the last years. There were problems with defensive line, but Wasilewski and Perquis improved the quality of this formation really much and the last four games looked really good in this domain, we've lost only one goal since then, also thanks to our great young goalie Szczesny.
Before all three tournaments during the last 10 years everything was wrong, three times the team was absolutely not physically prepared and two times the atmoshpere was shattered by the conflicts caused by unintelligible calls and the disputes with the journalists. The footballers played much rough football and managed to play really good matches only in the third group match, when they were out of competition (especially the 3:1 win against USA in WC2002, but also 2:1 against Costa Rica during the WC2006).
So each time during the major tournaments we played much worse football than in the Quals. Why do I say about this? Because it seems that currently everything is okay, there's the special staff responsible for well-physical preparation, which is completely individualized and they were monitoring physical load of footballers since a year, there're no conflicts with journalists, there some controversial decisions in calls to the team, but rather on less important positions like third striker, third goalie or fourth central midfielder, apparently the atmosphere in the team is great, the team is mentally merged.
I just wonder whether they withstand this high pressure of being the footballers from the host country...And second question is whether Lewandowski, Blaszczykowski and Piszczek will be able to showing the same football quality like in Dortmund, because they're are after really physically demanding season.