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post #1 of 4 (permalink) Old January 28th, 2006, 18:44 Thread Starter
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Analysis and Stats thread

A Scientifical Approach to Team Win Chances

As you all know I believe soccer can be captivated in stats. I've mentioned this before and I still strongly support my sayings.
In the next 'essay' I will explain a statistical approach to Teams and their projected points total and success rate.

1.INTRODUCTION

I will take the JUPILER League as an example after Round 19 (last weekend):

Totaal Klassement (01/08/05 - 26/01/06)
# W V G + - +/- Ptn
1 Standard 19 12 5 2 31 19 38
2 Club Brugge 19 11 3 5 31 17 38
3 Anderlecht 19 10 2 7 42 19 37
4 Zulte-Waregem 19 10 6 3 36 29 33
5 Westerlo 19 9 5 5 28 17 32
6 Racing Genk 19 8 4 7 32 23 31
7 Lokeren 19 8 5 6 28 26 30
8 AA Gent 19 8 7 4 25 23 28
9 FC Brussels 19 7 5 7 23 20 28
10 Roeselare 19 6 7 6 30 24 24
11 Charleroi 19 6 7 6 20 25 24
12 Cercle Brugge 19 6 9 4 25 31 22
13 G. Beerschot 19 6 10 3 25 34 21
14 Moeskroen 19 6 11 2 26 33 20
15 Beveren 19 6 11 2 24 31 20
16 La Louviere 19 4 9 6 17 35 18
17 Sint-Truiden 19 4 11 4 19 30 16
18 Lierse 19 1 11 7 8 34 10


Let us First have a look at the current point% of the teams


Totaal Klassement (01/08/05 - 26/01/06)
# W V G + - +/- Ptn P%
1 Standard 19 12 5 2 31 19 38 0.6667
2 Club Brugge 19 11 3 5 31 17 38 0.6667
3 Anderlecht 19 10 2 7 42 19 37 0.6491

4 Zulte-Waregem 19 10 6 3 36 29 33 0.5789
5 Westerlo 19 9 5 5 28 17 32 0.5614
6 Racing Genk 19 8 4 7 32 23 31 0.5438
7 Lokeren 19 8 5 6 28 26 30 0.5263
8 AA Gent 19 8 7 4 25 23 28 0.4912
9 FC Brussels 19 7 5 7 23 20 28 0.4912

10 Roeselare 19 6 7 6 30 24 24 0.4210
11 Charleroi 19 6 7 6 20 25 24 0.4210
12 Cercle Brugge 19 6 9 4 25 31 22 0.3859
13 G. Beerschot 19 6 10 3 25 34 21 0.3684
14 Moeskroen 19 6 11 2 26 33 20 0.3508
15 Beveren 19 6 11 2 24 31 20 0.3508

16 La Louviere 19 4 9 6 17 35 18 0.3157
17 Sint-Truiden 19 4 11 4 19 30 16 0.2807

18 Lierse 19 1 11 7 8 34 10 0.1754

Indeed, a statistical proof of the terms Top/SubTop/Middenmoot/Degradatiekandidaat/Degradant

So, until now i have not done anything shocking or radical and before I do, I want to note the following: thee set I use to study the ranking is not completely mathematically sound, I should eradicate the extreme results in order to get a more sound image, however this would be a very intensive work and it should be done by computers... Also I have not many stats at my disposal (thanks Belgacom).

So let the Revolution begin

Expect Part II tomorow:

"Stats and Magic" in which i will correctly predict everything that's about to happen the next 4 months in Belgian Football...



This document Copyright 2006 G. 'T Kindt . This Post was written by "MutOofd"
No one person or group has permission to publish my Post
as his/her/their own. If you wish to put this Post on your site, a message
board, etc., you must receive my permission by contacting G. 'T Kindt via the
e-mail addresses listed above. After receiving my permission, credit must be
given to the author of this work.

Last edited by CocaineCowboy; January 29th, 2006 at 09:19.
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post #2 of 4 (permalink) Old January 28th, 2006, 19:29
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Wow...alot of numbers that make me dizzy...

Looks like you're doing your research, though I have no idea what this means. Is it just me?



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post #3 of 4 (permalink) Old January 28th, 2006, 22:21 Thread Starter
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This document Copyright 2006 G. 'T Kindt . This Post was written by "MutOofd"
No one person or group has permission to publish my Post
as his/her/their own. If you wish to put this Post on your site, a message
board, etc., you must receive my permission by contacting G. 'T Kindt via the
e-mail addresses listed above. After receiving my permission, credit must be
given to the author of this work.

II. Stats and Magic

It is a given fact that soccer is based on scoring goals, or better yet outscoring your opponent. Hence , there is a significant relation between a teams succes and the goal numbers. It is also a given fact that throughout a season goals scored goals against ratio remains constant... This means that at the half of the season on basis of this ratio an accurate prediction can be made on the teams final position and points total.

II.1 SuccessRate

Lets first use a Formula I call Succesrate, this one rates how succesful a team will be:

# WVG + - Ptn SuccessRate
1 Standard 19 12 5 2 31 19 38 0.1448
2 Club Brugge 19 11 3 5 31 17 38 0.1997
3 Anderlecht 19 10 2 7 42 19 37 0.2777

4 Zulte-Waregem 19 10 6 3 36 29 33 0.0448
5 Westerlo 19 9 5 5 28 17 32 0.1569
6 Racing Genk 19 8 4 7 32 23 31 0.0815
7 Lokeren 19 8 5 6 28 26 30 0.0150
8 AA Gent 19 8 7 4 25 23 28 0.0181
9 FC Brussels 19 7 5 7 23 20 28 0.0335

10 Roeselare 19 6 7 6 30 24 24 0.0510
11 Charleroi 19 6 7 6 20 25 24 -0.0400
12 Cercle Brugge 19 6 9 4 25 31 22 -0.0347
13 G. Beerschot 19 6 10 3 25 34 21 -0.0453
14 Moeskroen 19 6 11 2 26 33 20 -0.0369
15 Beveren 19 6 11 2 24 31 20 -0.0405

16 La Louviere 19 4 9 6 17 35 18 -0.0869
17 Sint-Truiden 19 4 11 4 19 30 16 -0.0669

18 Lierse 19 1 11 7 8 34 10 -0.1311

So: according to this SuccesRate Stat at the end of the ride the ranking would be:


# WVG + - Ptn SuccessRate
1 Anderlecht 19 10 2 7 42 19 37 0.2777
2 Club Brugge 19 11 3 5 31 17 38 0.1997
3 Standard 19 12 5 2 31 19 38 0.1448

4 Westerlo 19 9 5 5 28 17 32 0.1569
5 Racing Genk 19 8 4 7 32 23 31 0.0815
6 Zulte-Waregem 19 10 6 3 36 29 33 0.0448
7 FC Brussels 19 7 5 7 23 20 28 0.0335
8 Lokeren 19 8 5 6 28 26 30 0.0150
9 AA Gent 19 8 7 4 25 23 28 0.0181

10 Roeselare 19 6 7 6 30 24 24 0.0510
11 Cercle Brugge 19 6 9 4 25 31 22 -0.0347
12 Moeskroen 19 6 11 2 26 33 20 -0.0369
13 Charleroi 19 6 7 6 20 25 24 -0.0400
14 Beveren 19 6 11 2 24 31 20 -0.0405
15 G. Beerschot 19 6 10 3 25 34 21 -0.0453

16 Sint-Truiden 19 4 11 4 19 30 16 -0.0669
17La Louviere 19 4 9 6 17 35 18 -0.0869

18 Lierse 19 1 11 7 8 34 10 -0.1311

Of course there are distortions like the big victories or defeats of Anderlecht and Zulte-Waregem, the leaving of Jaja Coelho at Westerlo, the new found power at Beerschot and La Louviere... For the rest this *ROUGH* stat deals pretty wel with predicting what will happen...

Couldnt wait till tomorrow so here's the first of my revolutionary prediction stats....
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post #4 of 4 (permalink) Old January 29th, 2006, 11:10 Thread Starter
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II.2 Rough prediction

Now lets use the Goal numbers again to try and predict the eventual point totals of the different teams.

First I'll use a rough approximation stat:

# WVG + - Ptn PtsApp#
1 Standard 19 12 5 2 31 19 38 2 .0840
2 Club Brugge 19 11 3 5 31 17 38 2.4624
3 Anderlecht 19 10 2 7 42 19 37 3.2865
4 Zulte-Waregem 19 10 6 3 36 29 33 1.3831
5 Westerlo 19 9 5 5 28 17 32 2.1137
6 Racing Genk 19 8 4 7 32 23 31 1.8810
7 Lokeren 19 8 5 6 28 26 30 1.1175
8 AA Gent 19 8 7 4 25 23 28 1.1332
9 FC Brussels 19 7 5 7 23 20 28 1.2332
10 Roeselare 19 6 7 6 30 24 24 1.3975
11 Charleroi 19 6 7 6 20 25 24 0.7155
12 Cercle Brugge 19 6 9 4 25 31 22 0.7242
13 G. Beerschot 19 6 10 3 25 34 21 0.6305
14 Moeskroen 19 6 11 2 26 33 20 0.6993
15 Beveren 19 6 11 2 24 31 20 0.6811
16 La Louviere 19 4 9 6 17 35 18 0.3385
17 Sint-Truiden 19 4 11 4 19 30 16 0.5040
18 Lierse 19 1 11 7 8 34 10 0.1141

This stat is the number a team wins more than it doesn't win, ie Standard wins 2 .0840 more than it loses or draws.

Speaking of which, stats in football about teams are complexified by the tie, in other sports you mostly win or lose, not so in football, since this season in ythe Jupiler League the most common scoreline was indeed 1-1!

Lets calculate the projected percentage of points now:

PtsApp# App% AppPtsTotal
1 Standard 2 .0840 0.6757 68
2 Club Brugge 2.4624 0.7111 72
3 Anderlecht 3.2865 0.7667 78
4 Zulte-Waregem 1.3831 0.5803 59
5 Westerlo 2.1137 0.6778 69
6 Racing Genk 1.8810 0.6528 66
7 Lokeren 1.1175 0.5277 53
8 AA Gent 1.1332 0.5312 54
9 FC Brussels 1.2332 0.5780 58
10 Roeselare 1.3975 0.5828 59
11 Charleroi 0.7155 0.4147 42
12 Cercle Brugge 0.7242 0.4200 42
13 G. Beerschot 0.6305 0.3866 39
14 Moeskroen 0.6993 0.4115 41
15 Beveren 0.6811 0.4051 41
16 La Louviere 0.3385 0.2528 25
17 Sint-Truiden 0.5040 0.3351 34
18 Lierse 0.1141 0.1020 10

What would make the final ranking as follows:

PtsApp# App% AppPtsTotal
1 Anderlecht 3.2865 0.7667 78
2 Club Brugge 2.4624 0.7111 72
3 Standard 2 .0840 0.6757 68
4 Westerlo 2.1137 0.6778 69
5 Racing Genk 1.8810 0.6528 66
6 Zulte-Waregem 1.3831 0.5803 59
7 Roeselare 1.3975 0.5828 59
8 FC Brussels 1.2332 0.5780 58
9 AA Gent 1.1332 0.5312 54
10 Lokeren 1.1175 0.5277 53
11 Charleroi 0.7155 0.4147 42
12 Cercle Brugge 0.7242 0.4200 42
13 Moeskroen 0.6993 0.4115 41
14 Beveren 0.6811 0.4051 41
15 G. Beerschot 0.6305 0.3866 39
16 Sint-Truiden 0.5040 0.3351 34
17 La Louviere 0.3385 0.2528 25
18 Lierse 0.1141 0.1020 10


Of course as you all can see this model is quite imperfect(Lierse already has 13 points now), largely due to the fact the big results were counted along...

But, since we have the points totals until now we can use these to make the approximation more fitting and closer to reality...

App% AppPtsTotal App2% AppPtsTotal2
1 Anderlecht 0.7667 78 0.7009 71
2 Club Brugge 0.7111 72 0.6862 70
3 Standard 0.6757 68 0.6706 68
4 Westerlo 0.6778 69 0.6127 62*
5 Racing Genk 0.6528 66 0.5918 60
6 Zulte-Waregem 0.5803 59 0.5795 59
7 Roeselare 0.5828 59 0.4923 50
8 FC Brussels 0.5780 58 0.5294 54
9 AA Gent 0.5312 54 0.5088 51
10 Lokeren 0.5277 53 0.5269 53
11 Charleroi 0.4147 42 0.4182 42
12 Cercle Brugge 0.4200 42 0.4009 40
13 Moeskroen 0.4115 41 0.3775 38
14 Beveren 0.4051 41 0.3747 38
15 G. Beerschot 0.3866 39 0.3764 38*
16 Sint-Truiden 0.3351 34 0.3047 31
17 La Louviere 0.2528 25 0.2879 29
18 Lierse 0.1020 10 0.1430 14*

*Due to apparent radical changes these predictions will be off


So we get the next Final Ranking:


1 Anderlecht 0.7667 78 0.7009 71
2 Club Brugge 0.7111 72 0.6862 70
3 Standard 0.6757 68 0.6706 68
4 Westerlo 0.6778 69 0.6127 62*
5 Racing Genk 0.6528 66 0.5918 60
6 Zulte-Waregem 0.5803 59 0.5795 59
7 FC Brussels 0.5780 58 0.5294 54
8 Lokeren 0.5277 53 0.5269 53
9 AA Gent 0.5312 54 0.5088 51
10 Roeselare 0.5828 59 0.4923 50
11 Charleroi 0.4147 42 0.4182 42
12 Cercle Brugge 0.4200 42 0.4009 40
13 Moeskroen 0.4115 41 0.3775 38
14 Beveren 0.4051 41 0.3747 38
15 G. Beerschot 0.3866 39 0.3764 38*
16 Sint-Truiden 0.3351 34 0.3047 31
17 La Louviere 0.2528 25 0.2879 29
18 Lierse 0.1020 10 0.1430 14*

*Due to apparent radical changes these predictions will be off

This document Copyright 2006 G. 'T Kindt . This Post was written by "MutOofd"
No one person or group has permission to publish my Post
as his/her/their own. If you wish to put this Post on your site, a message
board, etc., you must receive my permission by contacting G. 'T Kindt via the
e-mail addresses listed above. After receiving my permission, credit must be
given to the author of this work.
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