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post #1 of 10 (permalink) Old April 22nd, 2007, 21:16 Thread Starter
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The Task At Hand

The word that we didn't want to think about in the beginning of the season, the one we thought we wouldn't have to think about, is upon is. Relegation. Serie B. Infierno. I think we can stay up.

Here is the bottom half of the table as it stands now (assuming that Palermo don't perform a miracle in the last few minutes against Parma):

Livorno 36
Siena 34
Cagliari 34
Torino 33
Catania 33*
Chievo 32
Parma 32
---
Reggina 31
Messina 24
Ascoli 20*

*=game in hand - postponed from Week 33, will be played May 2.

From that we can draw these conclusions:

All of the bottom ten teams have a possibility of being relegated I feel.

Most likely relegated:
Messina, Ascoli

In the battle:
Parma, Reggina, Chievo, Catania, Torino, Cagliari, Siena, Livorno

Torino:
Milan (H) D
Ascoli (H) W
Roma (A) L
Livorno (H) D
Inter (A) L


Parma:
Cagliari (H) W
Chievo (A) D
Messina (H) W
Lazio (A) L
Empoli (H) D

Reggina:
Ascoli (A) D
Sampdoria (A) L
Chievo (H) D
Empoli (A) D
Milan (H) L

Chievo:
Fiorentina (A) L
Parma (H) D
Reggina (A) D
Ascoli (H) W
Catania (A) D

Catania:
Udinese (A) L
Ascoli (H) W
Empoli (A) L
Milan (H) L
Sampdoria (A) L
Chievo (H) D

Cagliari:
Parma (A) L
Udinese (H) L
Fiorentina (A) L
Roma (H) L
Ascoli (H) W

Siena:
Sampdoria (H) D
Atalanta (A) D
Empoli (H) L
Palermo (H) D
Lazio (H) L

Livorno:
Palermo (H) D
Lazio (A) L
Sampdoria (H) D
Torino (A) D
Atalanta (H) W

Looking at the schedules, we obviously have the toughest one, with Milan, Roma, and Inter in three out of our five remaining games. However, considering we do have to play these teams and there's no way out of it, the timing couldn't be better. Milan will be right in between its crucial CL tie with Man United, which I feel it will be focusing on more than the league at this point. We could see some players rested though of course they will have Ronaldo. With Roma, the game comes right in between the Coppa Italia ties with Inter. Considering that their second place is almost confirmed, and probably will be by week 36, Roma will have little to play for in the league plus a second leg of the Coppa Italia to worry out. Inter on the last day could be an interesting proposition. Probably the hardest of the three teams, but they might give their youngsters a chance? Furthermore, this is after the Coppa Italia, and if they win that as well, we could take advantage of a possible drop they might have afterwards. The other two games, Ascoli and Livorno we absolutely need to win. Ascoli we should definitely beat, and they are one of the few teams we have beaten away this term, so hopefully we can do them at home. Livorno could be more difficult, but are definitely beatable. I feel that five to seven more points from our last few games should see us clear of the 18th spot.

Looking at the other team's schedules, they are considerably easier on paper, though taking intangibles into the situation makes it intersting. First off, many of the teams are playing and will be taking points from each other (for example, Chievo have to play Parma, Reggina, and Catania still). Furthermore, the other teams are playing against teams with less distractions and still focused on meeting some sort of objective this season, namely European spots (pretty much every team in the top half of the table, most notably Empoli, Palermo, and Fiorentina, though Udinese, Atalanta, and Sampdoria could still very much be in the running for a spot in the UEFA Cup, though it would be a task.

Given the predictions I have made next to each fixture, it will produce a scenario like this:

Livorno 42
Parma 41
Torino 38
Chievo 38
Siena 37
Cagliari 37
Catania 37
---
Reggina 34
Messina 25
Ascoli 21

FORZA VECCHIO CUORE GRANATA!

NWO BABY
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post #2 of 10 (permalink) Old April 22nd, 2007, 23:32
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Unfortunately it looks like the next month will be a real nail-biter.

One good thnig is that GDB knows pressure. Maybe not this kind. But he's no babe in the woods.

Time for the Maratona to pick these guys up and carry them to June 1.

Forza Toro per sempre!
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post #3 of 10 (permalink) Old April 23rd, 2007, 20:16
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You must consider the so called "presents". Probably you'll benefit of them as well (I can't see Inter defeating you in the last game if you need points).

Reggina are going to make many more points than you predicted, present from Milan in the last game included.
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post #4 of 10 (permalink) Old April 23rd, 2007, 21:39 Thread Starter
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Possibly true with Reggina. They could definitely do better than what I predicted at Ascoli, Samp, and at home to Milan. The reason I am skeptical of their ability to get better results against Chievo and Empoli is that Chievo is a direct relegation rival and is in a very similar situation and looking to get the same results. With Empoli, they are in a race for a European place that is by no means guaranteed. Look at our game against them for example. We are fighting relegation, playing away to a team competing for a European place. We can guess who should get the three points and for most people (including myself) it wasn't going to be Toro. The point is, if Empoli slip up like they have, then their European place will by no means be guaranteed when the match against Reggina comes around. Milan? Probably can be a draw or even a win unless they slip up in the league and let Empoli or Palermo back in. Samp and Ascoli I agree, I could definitely see them getting more points.

I think this year's last relegation spot could be decided by a playout.

FORZA VECCHIO CUORE GRANATA!

NWO BABY
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post #5 of 10 (permalink) Old April 24th, 2007, 15:14
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the last 5 games,the final 5 games
3 of the TOP4
1 with a striker who has already got 18 goals
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post #6 of 10 (permalink) Old April 24th, 2007, 21:25 Thread Starter
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http://www.torinofc.it/content/view/1262/61/

Bovo's out for the season, this is not going to help us at all.

FORZA VECCHIO CUORE GRANATA!

NWO BABY
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post #7 of 10 (permalink) Old April 25th, 2007, 17:35
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Where is Lorry when we need her spirit and passion?
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post #8 of 10 (permalink) Old April 28th, 2007, 08:56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holofernes
Where is Lorry when we need her spirit and passion?
what we need now is the team's passion
and ,much more important , more luck
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post #9 of 10 (permalink) Old May 13th, 2007, 16:45 Thread Starter
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Standings as they are now:

Inter 93
Roma 72
Lazio 61
Milan 61
Fiorentina 54
Empoli 53
Palermo 52
Atalanta 49
Sampdoria 46
Udinese 43
Torino 39
Livorno 39
Catania 38
Parma 38
Cagliari 37
Siena 37
Chievo 36
---
Reggina 36
Messina 25
Ascoli 24

Fixtures, with italicized ones being of importance to us:

Ascoli-Palermo
Cagliari-Roma
Chievo-Ascoli
Empoli-Reggina
Lazio-Parma
Messina-Fiorentina
Palermo-Siena
Sampdoria-Catania
Torino-Livorno

As long as we win and at least one of our fellow relegation battlers loses, we will be safe! We can also safe with a draw and a Reggina or Chievo loss. There is no way to be safe with a loss to Livorno. Better to do it now than on the last day when we have to face Inter.

FORZA VECCHIO CUORE GRANATA!

NWO BABY
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post #10 of 10 (permalink) Old May 28th, 2007, 16:28
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Just by the hair of our chinny-chin-chins. (apologies to those who are unfamiliar with the American telling of "The Three Little Pigs").

Now Cairo can get to work. First things first -- solve the GDB situation. Keep him or sack him. But for pete's sake make a decision in the next 30 days.

Players? Let's make some strategic, not wholesale changes.

Congrats on survival. Celebration is over. Now back to work.
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