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post #1 of 92 (permalink) Old May 16th, 2006, 23:47 Thread Starter
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Global Warming

Err. Global Warming

I'm not sure if this has been discussed if yes, then feel free to delete.

Where do you stand on this issue?

Until now I thought that we are truly headed towards a catastrophe. The mainstream media seems to constantly talk about global warming and how Antartica is melting, the sea levels are rising and that all of this is a fact.

But I read some more into it recently and it seems that figures are not that dramatic.

For example there are studies that actually show that Antartica is actually getting colder and more ice is forming in the bigger part of Antartica in the past 30 years after 6000 years of melting.

There are studies that show that sea levels are pretty much the same.
Actual temperatures in the U.S. from 1880 till now are pretty much the same. So the question arises if the record keeping of temperatures in the whole world is that accurate for this period.


What do you guys think?
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post #2 of 92 (permalink) Old May 16th, 2006, 23:53
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I think that, honestly, if we don't do something soon, we're screwed in the long run.
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post #3 of 92 (permalink) Old May 17th, 2006, 06:30
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From what I've read, there is not enough empirical evidence out there to distinguish what is going on right now (supposed global warming) from a standard climatic cycle

Experts on both ends disagree. Usually people end up siding with who they want to believe.

On a side note,my opinion is that the state of science as far as computational modeling of thermal fields etc. in a body as big as the earth, requires so much power and memory, is unforutunatelly not up to par.
If people can't tell you deterministically that tomorrow it will be 34 C and it actually ends up raining instead, its hard to believe that they can tell you with any accuracy that something is going on in the globe as as a whole.

I agree with the view in this particular case that if we don't know whats going on, then we should be careful.
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post #4 of 92 (permalink) Old May 17th, 2006, 09:07
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bernmilan1
From what I've read, there is not enough empirical evidence out there to distinguish what is going on right now (supposed global warming) from a standard climatic cycle
No surprise you read that. Fact is still that the last 100 years have seen the most dramatic increase of average world temperature ever. "Dramatic" is still not something to be that scared off, its not like we will see it like in "day after tomorrow" .
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post #5 of 92 (permalink) Old May 17th, 2006, 09:23
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Doing something about global warming requires regulations for big energy and fuel corporations. Big energy and fuel corporations do not like regulations and have money - lots of it. They use some of it to fund research. Research funded by corporations is obviously favorable towards what big corporations want.

There is an enormous problem for the environment and considering the fact that there is no back up plan about where we are going to live even the hunch of some scientists that we are screwing the earth should be enough to ring all kind of bells and do something about it - just in case, even if they are wrong.

At best, we'll save the planet from some kind of Old Tastement-style physical disaster which will whip us all out. At worse, we'll have a cleaner planet and less concern about the future. What is there to loose apart from money?

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post #6 of 92 (permalink) Old May 17th, 2006, 09:46
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There have been great fluctuations in the Earth's temperature before. All throughout history it's gotten warmer and colder. That's nothing unusual.

What's said to be different about this one, is that it's claimed to be man made. But as long as there are contradicting studies to that regard, I don't think it's anything to panic about. That's not to say that it doesn't have it's benefits... (see below).

Certainly it should be studied further, but as long as it's not yet conclusive, I think it's premature to take all sorts of restrictive measures at this time already.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AMOROSO!
there is no back up plan about where we are going to live
Dunno about you, but I'm going to live right here:



With people getting scared about rising sea levels, the prices of beachfront property have dropped dramatically in the last few years. So with the money I saved, I bought myself a boat. The marina is right next door, so I got all bases covered. All thanks to global warming.

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post #7 of 92 (permalink) Old May 17th, 2006, 09:48
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Hey, I have a boat too. What's yours called?

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post #8 of 92 (permalink) Old May 17th, 2006, 10:06
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It already had a name when I bought it, it's the "fantasea". Not the most original. But I haven't thought of anything else yet.

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post #9 of 92 (permalink) Old May 17th, 2006, 10:19
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The person you're looking for is Xtratime Global Warming Expert LaBlanca.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boyo
It already had a name when I bought it, it's the "fantasea". Not the most original. But I haven't thought of anything else yet.
You have a boat? We should go cruisin' sometime

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post #10 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 03:42 Thread Starter
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The thing is that this issue has been overly politicized and whenever science gets too politicized, a red flag turns on for me. It should be noted that the theory of Eugenics had much political capital behind as well and was regarded as fact in that time.

Both sides have interests in this issue and much of the talk is not really helping. So much money, millions and millions are being gathered and spent just for conferences with statements like "Catastrophy is here" that it makes me wonder who stnands behind this.

Like Boyo said, I think it's not a thing for panic, the scientists should be given some independence on this, but it seems like it will get only worse.
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post #11 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 03:55
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Quote:
From what I've read, there is not enough empirical evidence out there to distinguish what is going on right now (supposed global warming) from a standard climatic cycle
Err, I don't really think so.

Really, it boils down to this: you have the majority of (independent) scientists that agree that climate change ("global warming" is a bit of misnomer) is a fact and that it's man made. Then you have a few genuine sceptics together with some "sceptics" who get their studies funded by Exxon-Mobil and the like that disagree. Then you have people who will believe that there is no problem instantly (because it's easier that way) and others that want it to go away because solving the problem requires doing things contrary to their ideological/political/economic beliefs.

Quote:
But as long as there are contradicting studies to that regard, I don't think it's anything to panic about.
First, of all, studies funded by Big Oil don't count.
Second, if there are 1000 scientists and 1000 studies saying one thing while 1 or 10 say otherwise, that's enough for you to ignore the issue and say "nothing for you to see here, please move along"? There are always people who dispute things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AMOROSO
There is an enormous problem for the environment and considering the fact that there is no back up plan about where we are going to live even the hunch of some scientists that we are screwing the earth should be enough to ring all kind of bells and do something about it - just in case, even if they are wrong.
This is the right attitude :thmbup:, whereas

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boyo
Certainly it should be studied further, but as long as it's not yet conclusive, I think it's premature to take all sorts of restrictive measures at this time already.
this is the wrong one :thmbdown:

If the effect of something is "inconclusive" as you say (I beg to differ) and it COULD be bad, that means we shouldn't do it until we know that it ISN'T, not keep doing until we one day figure out we've screwed ourselves.
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post #12 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 04:04
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Btw if you want to read up on issues such as climate change, other problems we face in the future, and so on, here are some excellent sites:

http://www.realclimate.org/ - a blog written by climate scientists, very good.

Plan B 2.0 - a very good and short book (available in full online) about climate change, energy shortages, other problems, how they can effect the world and how to solve such problems and how much it would cost in terms of $$$ - it's not as expensive as you might think
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post #13 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 04:58 Thread Starter
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Andrix, it's not fair to discount all studies that are funded by the industry. Some of those scientists are not just doing the studies to just help the industry, but I agree that less of these interest groups should be involved and the studies reviewed thoroughly.


Additionaly, there are also interest groups and "earthy" philanthropists that fund studies that only focus on the negative part. The above should be applied to these studies as well.

I'll write some references that I will copy from a fiction book with some main quotes taken out, but the references are real.

1. Doran, P.T., Priscu, J.C., Lyons, W.B., Walsh, J.E., Fountain, A.G., McKnight, D.M., Moorhead, D.L., Virginia, R.A., Wall, D.H., Clow, G.D., Fritsen, C.H., McKay, C.P., and Parsons, A.N., 2002, "Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response," Nature415: 517-20.
From 1986 to 2000 central Antarctic valleys cooled .7 degrees Celsius per decade with serious ecosystem damage from cold.

2. Comiso, J.C.,2000, "Variability and trends in Antarctic surface temperatures from in situ and satellite infrared measurements," Journal of Climate 13: 1674-96
Both satellite data and ground stations show slight cooling over the last 20 years.
3. Joughin,I., and Tulaczyk, S., 2002, "Positive mass balance of the Ross Ice Streams, West Antarctica," Science 295: 476-80
Side-looking radar measurements show West Antarctic ice is increasing at 26.8 gigatons/yr. Reversing the melting trend of the last 6,000 years.
4. Thompson, D.W.J., and Solomon, S.,2002, "Interpretation of recent
Southern Hemisphere climate change," Science 296: 895-99.
Antarctic peninsula has warmed several degrees while interior has cooled somewhat. Ice shelves have retreated but sea ice has increased.
5. Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I., Barnola, J.M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Deavis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V.M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov V.Y., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M., 1999, "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica," Nature 399: 429-36.
During the last four interglacials, going back 420,000 years, the Earth was warmer than it is today.
6. Anderson, J.B., and Andrews, J.T., 1999, "Radiocarbon constraints on ice sheet advance and retreat in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica," Geology 27: 179-82.
Less Antarctic ice has melted today than occured during the last interglacial.
7. (Full Bibliography available if someone wants it, I'm tired writing it now)
"Interpretation of recent Antarctic sea ice variability," Geophysical Research Letters 31: 10.1029/2003 GL018732.
Antarctic sea ice has increased since 1979.
8. "On the secular trends in sea ice extent over hte antarctic region based on OCEANSAT-1 MSMR observations," International Journal of Remote Sensing 24: 2277-87
Trend toward more sea ice may be accelerating.
9. "Trends in the length of the southern Ocean sea-ice season, 1979-99," Annals of Glaciology 34: 435-40.
The greater part of Antarctica experiences a longer sea-ice season, lasting 21 days longer than it did in 1979.
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post #14 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 05:01
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrix
others that want it to go away because solving the problem requires doing things contrary to their ideological/political/economic beliefs.
BINGO! That's where the issue is. Doing something would mean regulating corporations (SHOCK! HORROR! THE END OF CAPITALISM AS WE KNOW IT IS HERE! COMMUNISM IS TAKING OVER OUR WAY OF LIFE!) into taking real measures towards respecting the environment and some people find this... "wrong". :rollani:

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post #15 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 05:14 Thread Starter
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Taking extreme actions based only on an unproven theory, although may seem at present to be beneficial to Earth and human kind, may prove to be detrimental.

I don't agree that taking certain actions in pretense of saving Earth without more facts could in fact save Earth if it is doomed as some wish to say.
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post #16 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 05:17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrix
climate change
Funny how it's no longer referred to as global warming.

What a bunch of suckers

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post #17 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 08:40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrix
First, of all, studies funded by Big Oil don't count.
But those by Greenpeace do?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrix
Second, if there are 1000 scientists and 1000 studies saying one thing while 1 or 10 say otherwise, that's enough for you to ignore the issue and say "nothing for you to see here, please move along"? There are always people who dispute things.
So basically, what you're saying is that the majority can't be wrong?

Do you realize that at one time the majority thought that the Earth was flat, and that the Earth was the center of the universe. Should at that point scientists have stopped further studies into those areas? Thank god for people who dispute things.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrix
this is the wrong one :thmbdown:
"wrong attitude"... I think I just found the name for my boat!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrix
If the effect of something is "inconclusive" as you say (I beg to differ) and it COULD be bad, that means we shouldn't do it until we know that it ISN'T, not keep doing until we one day figure out we've screwed ourselves.
Many things CAN be bad, but as long as it's not fully known IF they're bad, WHY they're bad, and HOW bad, I don't see why that should mean - as you say - that we should stop doing "it". What is this "it" by the way?

Besides that, it's one thing to complain about something, and to say that it's "bad", but what are the realistic alternatives? With the emphasis on realistic.

You may despise big oil companies, but they're the ones who are thinking of realistic alternatives, and developing them. Shell already has several buses in operation in Amsterdam that use fuel cell technology, and will implement that on a larger scale in the decades to come.

Instead of crying wolf, what should be done is research the matter further until studies no longer contradict eachother on essential points, and then take the necessary measures. Not the other way around.

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Last edited by Boyo; May 18th, 2006 at 08:54.
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post #18 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 09:09
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From 1986 to 2000 central Antarctic valleys cooled .7 degrees Celsius per decade with serious ecosystem damage from cold.
Per decade? Its not even two decades The "serious ecosystem damage" is a funny statment, also called lie.

Quote:
Side-looking radar measurements show West Antarctic ice is increasing at 26.8 gigatons/yr. Reversing the melting trend of the last 6,000 years.
Greenland on the other hand.

Quote:
During the last four interglacials, going back 420,000 years, the Earth was warmer than it is today.
Irrelevant. The changes then accored over thousands of years, the changes now is much faster.

The temperature changes we talk about have stagnated the last years, but are still on a much higher level than 100 years ago. also while they talk about some ices being "increasing" they can't deny that sea levels HAVE increased. Its not by much, but with this trend continuing some places in this world will surely not be habitable in the future. First to go will be the Maldives and other small island who already now are on the brink of extinction.
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post #19 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 12:20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Boyo
But as long as there are contradicting studies to that regard, I don't think it's anything to panic about.
That totally puts me at ease too.....

...erhm....

Ups... didn't see Andrix post. Anyway I feel the same.

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post #20 of 92 (permalink) Old May 18th, 2006, 13:32
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There's a world of difference between 'totally being at ease' and 'not panicking'.

Ah, why do I even bother.

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