Champions League 2006-2007
Yeah-yeah, I know, a bit too early, but even though the competition hasnt started, the seedings are being decided right now...
Lets look at the current standings:
Green color = hope
Red color = threat
1. 119,393 - Real Madrid (Spain - 3rd with 3 games left; even if they get above Valencia, it wont help us since all top Spanish teams have higher ratings than us)
-Real Madrid 66(35games)
2. 111,973 - Inter (Italy - 3rd with 2 games left; Inter will definetely finish 3rd now, since they are to far from the 2nd or 4th place)
3. 105,620 - Liverpool (England - 3rd with 1 game left; here the only change that can happen is that Liverpool overtake MatU and get an automatic place in the group stage instead of ManU, who anyway have more points than we, so we're not affected by this "battle")
4. 60.640 - Ajax (Holland - they won the play-off - some very dumb thing the Dutch came up with - 4 teams play a play-off (cup-like) for a CLQ 3rd round, UEFA Cup, Intertoto and relegation - anyway, Ajax won and since they have more points, we're not interested in them.
5. 54.757 - Lille (France - 3rd with 2 games left; Im afraid out this group of 5 only Rennes will suit us.. at the moment they do lead on lost points but they also have tough games against PSG, Lille and StEtienne
-Lille 58(36games) 54.757 points
-Lens 56(36games) 39.757 points
-Rennes 56(35games) 19.757 points
-Marseille 55(35games) 48.757 points
-Auxerre 53(35games) 53.757 points
6. 51,533 - Benfica (Portugal - 3rd with 1 game left; nothing really affects here neither, since Sporting has 54.533 points - much higher than either of our clubs
-Porto 78(33games) 87.533 points
-Sporting 69(33games) 54.533 points
-Benfica 67(33games) 51,533 points
7. 49,537 - FC Basel (Switzerland - 1st with 4 games left; only these 2 are left with the chance to win the league and get into the CL. As you can see Basel are in a much better position leading by 3 points with a game in hand, but if a miracle happens and Zurich takes the gold, it would benefit us a lot since Zurich has only 10.537 rating... Still highly unlikely to happen since Basel lost only 2 in 32.
-Basel 72(32games) 49,537 points
-Zurich 69(33games) 10.537 points
8. 44,131 - Steaua (Romania, 1st ON LOST POINTS with 7 games left; - the situation here is very interesting - 4 clubs are fighting for the championship, win by anyone but Steaua will put them right below both of our clubs, but unfortunatelly Steaua has lost only 3 games this season and are unlikely to lose the league, but anything is possible i.e. Boro)
-Rapid 49(25games) 30.381 points
-Sportul 47(25games) 10.381 points
-Steaua 46(23games) 44,131 points
-Dinamo 46(25games) 22.381 points
9. 43,919 - Werder (Germany - 3rd place with 3 games left; The only hope here is that Werder manages to get above Hamburger in the next 3 games, whom they're trailing by 4 points. Hamburger has 30,960 points which is lower than both Dynamo and Shakhtar.
-Bayern 70(31games) 80.960 points
-Hamburg 65(31games) 30.960 points
-Werder 61(31games) 43,919 points
-Schalke 55(31games) 64.960 points
10. 42,504 - CSKA (champion in 2005; since Spartak who finished second is below both of our clubs with 21.504 points we're not threatened by it.
11. 39.587 - AEK (Greece, 2nd with 1 game left; even if AEK loses its last game and Panatinaikos, who have 66,587 points, gets the 2nd spot, the seeding will not be affected much in regards to us.
-Olymp 69(29games) 43.587 points
-AEK 66(29games) 39.587 points
-Panat. 64(29games) 66,587 points
12. 38,981 - Anderlecht (Belgium, 1st with 1 game left; with 1 game to go pretty much everything has been decided in Belgium except for the champion. Anderlecht are in the driving seat being 2 point clear from Standard. Anyway if Standard was to win the league, they would automatically be placed below us sicne they've only got 17.981 points
-Anderlecht 67(33games) 38,981 points
-Standard 65(33games) 17.981 points
13. 36,777 - Dynamo Kyiv (Ukraine - 1st with 2 games left)
14. 36,016 - Levski (Bulgaria - 1st with 5 games left; realistically only CSKA Sofia can challenge them for the title (although they are 5 points behind with 5 games left), and since they have only 21.016 points they are not a threat. So if they were to win it, they would help Shakhtar who have lower ratings than Levski)
-Levski 60(23games) 36,016 points
-CSKA 55(23games) 21.016 points
15. 33,777 - Shakhtar (Ukraine - 2nd with 2 ames left)
16. 33,634 - Galatasaray (Turkey - 2nd with 2 games left; only 2 title contenders and both of them have lower ratings than Shakhtar. Safe!
-Fenerbahce 77(32games) 28,634 points
-Galatasaray 77(32games) 33,634 points
17. 28,769 - Slovan Liberec (Czech Rep. - champion with 2 games left; Since slovan is the champion, i'll concentrate on the second and last CL spot: 4 clubs are fighing for it and only 1 club is a threat for us - its Sparta who are 4 points behind Teplice and Boleslav and 1 point behind Slavia who has a game in hand... I think we're safe here, since you cannot expect all three teams losing all of their remaining 2 games...
Interestingly that Slavia are with a great chacne to finish 2nd (goal difference) and they have 0.008 points less than Shakhtar - how lucky is that?
-Liberec 58(28games) 28,769 points
-Teplice 48(28games) 18.769 points
-Boleslav 48(28games) 8.769 points
-Slavia 45(27games) 33.769 points
-Sparta 44(28games) 44.769 points
18. 28,634 - Fenerbahce (Turkey - 1st with 2 games left)
19. 28.020 - Fiorentina (Italy - 4th with 2 games left - they've just overtaken Roma, who has 75,973 rating, which is perfect for us, since both of our teams have higher ratings, but if Roma manages to come back, we might suffer... Come on, Viola!!!
-Fiorentina 68(32games) 28.020 points
-Roma 66(32games) 75,973 points
20. 27,723 - Austria (Austria, 1st with 2 games left; even if Salzburg gwins the league, it wont affect us in any way.
-Austria V 64(34games) 27,723 points
-Salzburg 60(34games) 8.723 points
21. 24,393 - Osasuna (Spain - 4th place with 3 games left; this is big!!! Only Osasuna is good for us since both Celta and Sevilla have more points than us... Osasuna have are two points ahead of Celta with 3 games to go - Sevilla are 7 points behind but they also have 1 more game in hand.
-Osasuna 62(35games) 24,393 points
-Celta 60(35games) 42.818 points
-Sevilia 56(34games) 58.818 points
Osasuna - Atletico M (9th, AWAY), Racing (15th, AWAY) and Valencia (2nd, HOME)
Celta - Barcelona (1st HOME), Real Sociedad (12th, AWAY) and Getafe (8th, HOME)
Sevilla - Getafe (8th HOME), Malaga (20th, AWAY), Real M (3rd, HOME) and Barcelona
Seeing that Sevilla will face both Barca and Real in addition to their poorer goals for/against than Osasuna I would take them out this race, but its hard to predict who will finish 4th out of the other two... Lets hpe i'll be Osasuna!
22. 21,504 - Spartak (Russia - finished 2nd in 2005)
23. 20,647 - Dinamo (Croatia - champions)
24. 20,620 - Tottenham (England - 4th with 1 game left; another big one!!! They need to win their last game vs West Ham - not an easy derby game i must say especially considering WH has been on form all this season. Arsenal have two games left - one at ManCity and a home game vs Wigan... Should be 6 points for them, so Spurs simply have to win the derby, otherwise Gunners will get above us and will push both of our clubs down the seeding ladder...
-Tottenh 65(37games) 20,620 points
-Arsenal 61(36games) 101.950 points (might get more if win the CL final)
25. 20,600 - Crvena Zvezda (Serbia, - champions with 2 games left)
26. 20,023 - Hearts (Scotland, 2nd with 2 games left; We need Hearts to finish 2ndsince Rangers has over 40k points. the last two games for Hearsts are HOME with Aberdeen (5th) and away, yes at Rangers.. If they win in Edinburough they'll guarantee the CL spot, if not, im afraid they'll blow it in Glasgow...
P.S. Rangers will also have to meet 4th placed Hibernian before the Hearsts game.
-Hearts 71(36games) 20,023 points
-Rangers 67(36games) 43.023 points
27. 19,108 - Maccabi Haifa (Israel - 1st; non of the Israeli clubs is a threat)
28. 18,769 - Teplice (Czech Rep - 2nd with 2 game left; as i already mentioned only miracle with put Sparta - the only team that is higher in the rating - upto second place.
29 - Neither of the team from Denmark, Poland, Slovakia, Norway are threatening us...
The only other threat for us is Arsenal winning the Champions League and getting thru to the 3rd qualifying round next season...
This way both of our clubs will get pushed on place down and in case with Shakhtar this one place could be costly...
To sum up THREAT vs HOPE = 6:6, although the threat is more realistic then the hope, unfortunatelly...
P.S. If you ask me, only a miracle will help Shakhtar to be seeded this year... Dynamo are pretty safe, but not completely...
Last edited by Roman; May 2nd, 2006 at 07:54.