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post #1 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 01:00 Thread Starter
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Champions League 2006-2007

Yeah-yeah, I know, a bit too early, but even though the competition hasnt started, the seedings are being decided right now...

Lets look at the current standings:

Green color = hope
Red color = threat


SEEDED!!!!!

1. 119,393 - Real Madrid (Spain - 3rd with 3 games left; even if they get above Valencia, it wont help us since all top Spanish teams have higher ratings than us)
-Barcelona 76(34games)
-Valencia 68(35games)
-Real Madrid 66(35games)

2. 111,973 - Inter (Italy - 3rd with 2 games left; Inter will definetely finish 3rd now, since they are to far from the 2nd or 4th place)

3. 105,620 - Liverpool (England - 3rd with 1 game left; here the only change that can happen is that Liverpool overtake MatU and get an automatic place in the group stage instead of ManU, who anyway have more points than we, so we're not affected by this "battle")
-Chelsea 91(36games)
-ManUtd 80(37games)
-Liverpool 79(37games)

4. 60.640 - Ajax (Holland - they won the play-off - some very dumb thing the Dutch came up with - 4 teams play a play-off (cup-like) for a CLQ 3rd round, UEFA Cup, Intertoto and relegation - anyway, Ajax won and since they have more points, we're not interested in them.

5. 54.757 - Lille (France - 3rd with 2 games left; Im afraid out this group of 5 only Rennes will suit us.. at the moment they do lead on lost points but they also have tough games against PSG, Lille and StEtienne
-Lille 58(36games) 54.757 points
-Lens 56(36games) 39.757 points
-Rennes 56(35games) 19.757 points
-Marseille 55(35games) 48.757 points
-Auxerre 53(35games) 53.757 points


6. 51,533 - Benfica (Portugal - 3rd with 1 game left; nothing really affects here neither, since Sporting has 54.533 points - much higher than either of our clubs
-Porto 78(33games) 87.533 points
-Sporting 69(33games) 54.533 points
-Benfica 67(33games) 51,533 points

7. 49,537 - FC Basel (Switzerland - 1st with 4 games left; only these 2 are left with the chance to win the league and get into the CL. As you can see Basel are in a much better position leading by 3 points with a game in hand, but if a miracle happens and Zurich takes the gold, it would benefit us a lot since Zurich has only 10.537 rating... Still highly unlikely to happen since Basel lost only 2 in 32.
-Basel 72(32games) 49,537 points
-Zurich 69(33games) 10.537 points


8. 44,131 - Steaua (Romania, 1st ON LOST POINTS with 7 games left; - the situation here is very interesting - 4 clubs are fighting for the championship, win by anyone but Steaua will put them right below both of our clubs, but unfortunatelly Steaua has lost only 3 games this season and are unlikely to lose the league, but anything is possible i.e. Boro)
-Rapid 49(25games) 30.381 points
-Sportul 47(25games) 10.381 points
-Steaua 46(23games) 44,131 points
-Dinamo 46(25games) 22.381 points


9. 43,919 - Werder (Germany - 3rd place with 3 games left; The only hope here is that Werder manages to get above Hamburger in the next 3 games, whom they're trailing by 4 points. Hamburger has 30,960 points which is lower than both Dynamo and Shakhtar.
-Bayern 70(31games) 80.960 points
-Hamburg 65(31games) 30.960 points
-Werder 61(31games) 43,919 points
-Schalke 55(31games) 64.960 points


10. 42,504 - CSKA (champion in 2005; since Spartak who finished second is below both of our clubs with 21.504 points we're not threatened by it.

11. 39.587 - AEK (Greece, 2nd with 1 game left; even if AEK loses its last game and Panatinaikos, who have 66,587 points, gets the 2nd spot, the seeding will not be affected much in regards to us.
-Olymp 69(29games) 43.587 points
-AEK 66(29games) 39.587 points
-Panat. 64(29games) 66,587 points

12. 38,981 - Anderlecht (Belgium, 1st with 1 game left; with 1 game to go pretty much everything has been decided in Belgium except for the champion. Anderlecht are in the driving seat being 2 point clear from Standard. Anyway if Standard was to win the league, they would automatically be placed below us sicne they've only got 17.981 points
-Anderlecht 67(33games) 38,981 points
-Standard 65(33games) 17.981 points


13. 36,777 - Dynamo Kyiv (Ukraine - 1st with 2 games left)

14. 36,016 - Levski (Bulgaria - 1st with 5 games left; realistically only CSKA Sofia can challenge them for the title (although they are 5 points behind with 5 games left), and since they have only 21.016 points they are not a threat. So if they were to win it, they would help Shakhtar who have lower ratings than Levski)
-Levski 60(23games) 36,016 points
-CSKA 55(23games) 21.016 points


15. 33,777 - Shakhtar (Ukraine - 2nd with 2 ames left)

16. 33,634 - Galatasaray (Turkey - 2nd with 2 games left; only 2 title contenders and both of them have lower ratings than Shakhtar. Safe!
-Fenerbahce 77(32games) 28,634 points
-Galatasaray 77(32games) 33,634 points

UNSEEDED!!!!!

17. 28,769 - Slovan Liberec (Czech Rep. - champion with 2 games left; Since slovan is the champion, i'll concentrate on the second and last CL spot: 4 clubs are fighing for it and only 1 club is a threat for us - its Sparta who are 4 points behind Teplice and Boleslav and 1 point behind Slavia who has a game in hand... I think we're safe here, since you cannot expect all three teams losing all of their remaining 2 games...
Interestingly that Slavia are with a great chacne to finish 2nd (goal difference) and they have 0.008 points less than Shakhtar - how lucky is that?
-Liberec 58(28games) 28,769 points
-Teplice 48(28games) 18.769 points
-Boleslav 48(28games) 8.769 points
-Slavia 45(27games) 33.769 points
-Sparta 44(28games) 44.769 points


18. 28,634 - Fenerbahce (Turkey - 1st with 2 games left)

19. 28.020 - Fiorentina (Italy - 4th with 2 games left - they've just overtaken Roma, who has 75,973 rating, which is perfect for us, since both of our teams have higher ratings, but if Roma manages to come back, we might suffer... Come on, Viola!!!
-Fiorentina 68(32games) 28.020 points
-Roma 66(32games) 75,973 points


20. 27,723 - Austria (Austria, 1st with 2 games left; even if Salzburg gwins the league, it wont affect us in any way.
-Austria V 64(34games) 27,723 points
-Salzburg 60(34games) 8.723 points

21. 24,393 - Osasuna (Spain - 4th place with 3 games left; this is big!!! Only Osasuna is good for us since both Celta and Sevilla have more points than us... Osasuna have are two points ahead of Celta with 3 games to go - Sevilla are 7 points behind but they also have 1 more game in hand.
-Osasuna 62(35games) 24,393 points
-Celta 60(35games) 42.818 points
-Sevilia 56(34games) 58.818 points
Remaining fixtures:
Osasuna - Atletico M (9th, AWAY), Racing (15th, AWAY) and Valencia (2nd, HOME)
Celta - Barcelona (1st HOME), Real Sociedad (12th, AWAY) and Getafe (8th, HOME)
Sevilla - Getafe (8th HOME), Malaga (20th, AWAY), Real M (3rd, HOME) and Barcelona
Seeing that Sevilla will face both Barca and Real in addition to their poorer goals for/against than Osasuna I would take them out this race, but its hard to predict who will finish 4th out of the other two... Lets hpe i'll be Osasuna!


22. 21,504 - Spartak (Russia - finished 2nd in 2005)

23. 20,647 - Dinamo (Croatia - champions)

24. 20,620 - Tottenham (England - 4th with 1 game left; another big one!!! They need to win their last game vs West Ham - not an easy derby game i must say especially considering WH has been on form all this season. Arsenal have two games left - one at ManCity and a home game vs Wigan... Should be 6 points for them, so Spurs simply have to win the derby, otherwise Gunners will get above us and will push both of our clubs down the seeding ladder...
-Tottenh 65(37games) 20,620 points
-Arsenal 61(36games) 101.950 points (might get more if win the CL final)


25. 20,600 - Crvena Zvezda (Serbia, - champions with 2 games left)

26. 20,023 - Hearts (Scotland, 2nd with 2 games left; We need Hearts to finish 2ndsince Rangers has over 40k points. the last two games for Hearsts are HOME with Aberdeen (5th) and away, yes at Rangers.. If they win in Edinburough they'll guarantee the CL spot, if not, im afraid they'll blow it in Glasgow...
P.S. Rangers will also have to meet 4th placed Hibernian before the Hearsts game.
-Hearts 71(36games) 20,023 points
-Rangers 67(36games) 43.023 points


27. 19,108 - Maccabi Haifa (Israel - 1st; non of the Israeli clubs is a threat)

28. 18,769 - Teplice (Czech Rep - 2nd with 2 game left; as i already mentioned only miracle with put Sparta - the only team that is higher in the rating - upto second place.

29 - Neither of the team from Denmark, Poland, Slovakia, Norway are threatening us...


The only other threat for us is Arsenal winning the Champions League and getting thru to the 3rd qualifying round next season...
This way both of our clubs will get pushed on place down and in case with Shakhtar this one place could be costly...

To sum up THREAT vs HOPE = 6:6, although the threat is more realistic then the hope, unfortunatelly...

P.S. If you ask me, only a miracle will help Shakhtar to be seeded this year... Dynamo are pretty safe, but not completely...

Last edited by Roman; May 2nd, 2006 at 07:54.
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post #2 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 01:14
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Roman....if one of these teams qualify for the 3rd qualifying round Dynamo will be seeded-Hearts,Osasuna,Fiorentina,S.Liege or Tottenham,added to the fact that Sparta doesnt finnish in second and Barça wins the Cl....so a great chance for them to be Seeded....and Shakhtar doesnt need a miracle,they needed tree of that teams to qualify for the 3rd qualifying round....(with Sparta and Barça help also)

Saying this i dont want to see all these teams in the 3rd qualifying round,it will be too many strong unseeded teams there...

So,Hearts,S.Liege and Fiorentina finnishing where they are, Sparta not finnishing in the first two of their league and Barça european champion for Shakhtar and Dynamo to be both seeded...,So why do you want teams like Hamburg or Tottenham in the 3rd qualifying round?

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post #3 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 01:24 Thread Starter
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Why? Standard is very unlikely to win the league... Anderlecht are 2 points ahead with ONE game left... What if Arsenal win the Champions Leauge...?
Of course I dont want to have strong teams unseeded, but you MUST have some backups...
Anyway the chacnes of gettting an unseeded strong team are A LOT smaller than a seeded strong team (since almost any team there is very strong), dont you think?

P.S. With the championship around Europe coming to their final matchdays, we need to watch out for the following leagues/competition:
1. French
2. Swiss
3. Romanian
4. German
5. Belgian
6. Bulgarian

----------
7. Czech
8. Italian
9. Spanish
10. English
11. Scottish
12. Champions League final
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post #4 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 01:27 Thread Starter
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In addition, do you really think that Fiorentina is stronger than Roma, cuase i doubt it... They play great football even without their leader Totti and Fiolla might even lose Toni to a bigger club in the summer transfer (especially after the world cup)
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post #5 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 01:39
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Like i said Roman....

Dynamo Seeded:Hearts,S.Liege,Fiorentina,tottenham or Osasuna to qualify for the 3rd qualifying round,only one of them is needed.....added to that Barça being european champion and Sparta not finnishing in second.....almost impossible for Dynamo not be Seeded!

Shakhtar seeded:hearts,s.liege,fiorentina,tottenham,osasuna ,tree of them needed to be in the 3rd qualifying round added Barça european champion and Sparta not finnishing in second....likely to happen.

And as you see i didnt even mention Hamburg,Rennes.... or Levski and Steaua not being champions...

So Dynamo,95% per cent of chances of being seeded,Shakhtar 70% per cent.!
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post #6 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 01:49 Thread Starter
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As I said in my original post, "Dynamo are pretty much safe" so its not about them...

What I cant figure out how did you come up with that 70% for Shakhtar...

Currently they are 15th - thats the last possible seeded position... So even A SIGNLE threat happens, they'll be moved to 16th and automatically get unseeded... Do I really have to chew everything for you? everytime? ?

So Hearts, Fiorentina, Tottenham, Osasuna, Sparta OR Arsenal (CL final).... ANY ANY ANY chew chew chew ANY one of them get the desired result and Shakhtar is unseeded...

Got it?
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post #7 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 01:57 Thread Starter
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And, damn it, forget about that Liege...
The only reason I coloured it green, because its theoretically possible...
In real life, its pretty much hopeless...
There's only one matchday left in the Belgian top flight... Anderlecht play at HOME and its as likely that tey'll lose at home as Dynamo losing to Zakarpattia... In any case even a point will give them the title... While Standard plays the 4th team, so if any team is gonna lose points in the last round, its not Anderlecht...
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post #8 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 02:02
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Look at 2nd Round

Quote:
Yeah-yeah, I know, a bit too early, but even though the competition hasnt started, the seedings are being decided right now...
No kidding ...

If the form from last season continues this list is a waste of time....

You should be looking at teams that are qualifying from the 1st and 2nd stages.

Like uhhh is there anudder FC Thun in the draw....
Code:
Seeded teams                   coef.            Unseeded teams                 coef.
------------------------ --- ----------------   ------------------------ --- ----------------
Dynamo/Shaxtar           YKP  33.777 - 36.777   .
Fenerb/Galat             Tur  28.634 - 33.634   .
Spartak Moscow           Rus  21.504            .
Probably Levski          Bul  21.016 - 35.016   3 Teams/To close to call Cyp   3.355 -  6.355
Red Star Belgrade        Srb  20.600            MyPa-47 *                Fin   3.433
Hearts/Rangers           Sco  20.023 - 43.023   Donzale/Gorica           Slo   3.355 -  5.355
Prob. FC Kobenhaven      Den  16.593 - 23.593   Siroki Brijeg *          Bos   2.695
Prob. Legia Wawsaw       Pol  16.104 - 29.104   FH Hafnarfjardar *       Isl   2.595
.                                               Metalurgs Liepaja *      Lat   2.365
.                                               Sheriff Tiraspol *       Mol   2.255
.                                               Bolnisi/G.Tbilisi        Geo   2.090
.                                               Ekranas Panevezys *      Lit   1.925
.                                               Possibly Rabotniki       Mac   1.760 -  2.760
.                                               CL-QR1 *                       1.457 -  1.880

Other knowns:


Code:
Unknown:                       coef.
------------------------ --- ----------------
Vålerengen IF            Nor  11.921
Base,/FC Zurich          Sui  10.537 - 49.537
4 Teams - Very close     Rom  10.381 - 46.381
Djurgårdens IF           Swe   9.372
Too close for 2nd        Cze   8.769 - 44.769
Saltzburg/Vienna         Aut   8.723 - 27.723
To close to call         Hun   4.840 - 13.840
Prob Dinamo Zagreb       Cro   4.647 - 20.647
Too close to call        Svk   4.070 - 13.070
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post #9 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 02:09
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roman
As I said in my original post, "Dynamo are pretty much safe" so its not about them...

What I cant figure out how did you come up with that 70% for Shakhtar...

Currently they are 15th - thats the last possible seeded position... So even A SIGNLE threat happens, they'll be moved to 16th and automatically get unseeded... Do I really have to chew everything for you? everytime? ?

So Hearts, Fiorentina, Tottenham, Osasuna, Sparta OR Arsenal (CL final).... ANY ANY ANY chew chew chew ANY one of them get the desired result and Shakhtar is unseeded...

Got it?
Again,Hearts(second in the league),Fiorentina(fourth),S.Liege(second),Barça european champion,and Sparta not finnishing in second is all that Shakhtar needs....and dont forget,Hamburg,rennes,Tottenham,Cska Sofia,Rapid Bucharest......yes Shakhtar has 70% per cent of being seeded.
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post #10 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 02:15
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And of course Roman there are 16 seeded teams not 15,only now i check your error added to the fact that the Belgium champion will qualify directly for Cl next year,Belgium is in 9 th place Roman,big error here... ,so Dynamo and especialy Shakhtar needed that Anderlecht become Belgium champion.

Last edited by kleber; May 2nd, 2006 at 02:26.
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post #11 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 08:11 Thread Starter
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Yaps, I got a total of 32 teams there, but i just put the UNSEEDED divider in the wrong place after i finished everyhting... So we do have one place as a backup... That changes a lot, but not everything... Still doubt that its 70%, more like 50-50 since Hearts, Spurs, Osasuna and Violla could easily all lose thier current positions and who gave the CL trophy to Barca already? :eekani: Arsenal are known for beating the crap out big teams this year...
As for the Anderlecht situation, in my outdated list (about month ago) Anderlecht were second behind Standard, i can blame tiredness for that - i just wanted to update my list before the last games begin this midweek. Imagine the situation, Standard against all the odds win the league, im overjoye only to reliase the error with the next update?

One thing for sure that Shakhtar has been really lucky - that last home draw in the UEFA Cup put them just ahead of two big teams - Galatasaray and Slavia...

2_Fedya: Yeah, of couse its possible but you cannot just rely on that... You want to be sure of the spot even before the campaign begins...

P.S. Im sure Shakhtar wont mess up in the 2nd QR (yeah i think Dynamo will win the league) like Kyiv did last year... Akhmetov would bust them all with a baseball bat p

Added: I hope we get a decent backup there before the CL final - cause i wanna cheer for the Gunners p

Last edited by Roman; May 2nd, 2006 at 08:35.
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post #12 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 08:32 Thread Starter
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Few technical details:

First Qualifying Round
Draw: June 23
Matches: July 11/12 & July 18/19

Second Qualifying Round
Draw: June 23
Matches: July 25/26 & August 1/2

Third Qualifying Round
Draw: July 28
Matches: August 8-9 & August 22/23

Group Stage
Draw: August 24
1st Round: September 12/13
2nd Round: September 26/27
3rd Round: October 17/18
4th Round: October 31/November 1
5th Round: November 21/22
6th Round: December 5/6

1/8 Final
Draw: December 15
Matches: February 20/21 & March 6/7

1/4 Final
Draw: March 9
Matches: April 3/4 & April 10/11

1/2 Final
Draw: March 9
Matches: April 24/25 & May 1/2

FINAL
Athens: May 23, 2007
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post #13 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 13:55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roman
2_Fedya: Yeah, of couse its possible but you cannot just rely on that... You want to be sure of the spot even before the campaign begins...

P.S. Im sure Shakhtar wont mess up in the 2nd QR (yeah i think Dynamo will win the league) like Kyiv did last year... Akhmetov would bust them all with a baseball bat p

Added: I hope we get a decent backup there before the CL final - cause i wanna cheer for the Gunners p
The fact is just because you are seeded you cannot guarantee yourself passage to the next stage of the competition.

This was clearly demonstrated by Dynamo last season - who would of been seeded in the 3rd Qualification round but didn't even get there. I wonder if Surkistan is aware of such possibilities!
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post #14 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 17:00 Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedya_Fussball
The fact is just because you are seeded you cannot guarantee yourself passage to the next stage of the competition.
[/I]
But its also a fact that you'll get an easier team... Its coaches job then to make sure your players dont underestimate the opposition like Buryaks Dynamo did last year...
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post #15 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 17:04
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roman
But its also a fact that you'll get an easier team... Its coaches job then to make sure your players dont underestimate the opposition like Buryaks Dynamo did last year...
Coaches job should be one game at a time....

Was FC Thun an easier team???
Bwahahahahahahahahahaha

And the first game for a YKPAIHIAH Team will be in the 2nd Qual round.

Do you have that list of teams yet????
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post #16 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 17:09 Thread Starter
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Of course they were easier... then team like Inter who were seeded... The coach failed to motivate and prepare them for the battle and he paid the price...
Do you think he would be fired if Dynamo was to progress? No...

And no i dont have that list, cause i simply dont need it... All those teamshave lower rankings and my point was to find out how good are our chances to be seeded... Seem pretty good, but not sure thing...
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post #17 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 17:12
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Ajax have not yet won the Dutch play-offs, they won the first leg 2-0 at home to FC Groningen. The second leg is tommorow.

Groningen co-efficents is far worse than either Shaktar or Dynamo's and would put them into the unseeded category.

Also alot of those leagues you mentioned at the start have teams which need to play a 2nd qualfying round game first.

BTW, according to goD over at the Belgian forum the tiebreaker in the Juliper league is amount of wins a team has and not GD or head-to-head. So if Standard win next weekend against Gent and Anderlecht draw then Standard becomes champions due to winning one more game.

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post #18 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 17:15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roman
But its also a fact that you'll get an easier team... Its coaches job then to make sure your players dont underestimate the opposition like Buryaks Dynamo did last year...
Even Mikhailichenko is better than Buryak in my opinion,at least he won something......

Dynamo had a problem,the brazilians wanted to spend more time in Brazil during the summer and that cost the team their elimination,also Thun was no garbage team and they proved that in the Champions league group phase.

Of course with the league ended one month earlier this year you have no such problems of holydays for the players,the ones who will not go to the world cup will have at least one month of free time if not even more.
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post #19 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 17:16 Thread Starter
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Oh, so its a two game tie...
I thought it was in a cup-like format... So is it good for Dynamo/Shakhtar? On paper yes, but i doubt that Groninger will come back...
Anyway, i think this is a very very very dumb thing - the playoff... AZ worked their asses off all season and lost a bit of form in the end and now will miss out on the Champions League... Dumb...!!! Do you know will these play-off be played every year now?

P.S. as for the 2nd qualifying rounds, yes, we've discussed with Fedya these on the first page.
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post #20 of 728 (permalink) Old May 2nd, 2006, 17:18
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Yeah, I think the Dutch FA wants to keep the playoffs for a while. Though if Groningen embrasses Dutch football in the CL next year after finishing 5th they may reconsider.

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Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive. Try to avoid choosing short (like '1'), simple (like 'abcd') and easy to guess passwords (like a name of your favorite team, player, etc)! Complex and long enough passwords, that consists of random string of alphabet and numerical characters, are almost impossible to be stolen and misused.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

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