Do draft projections have any real value?
Not only is NBA still horrible at evaluating individual prospects...by now we can also say that they are completely wrong at evaluating the quality of an entire year's draft pool in general.
2013 was considered to be one of the worst draft years of all time. Cavs who got the first pick gave it very little value and actively tried to shop it but nobody offered them enough. What happened next is history.
2014 was widely considered to be the greatest draft year since 2003. Not only had it 3 generational prospects in Wiggins, Parker and Embiid but there seemed to be tons of value in top 10 overall (don't forget that Marcus Smart would have been a consensus #1 pick had he joined the draft in 2013...now he went only 7th).
But amazingly enough we can now say that 2013 proved to be a slightly better draft year than 2014 (in fact it is certain that 2014 was the most over-hyped draft pool of all time).
Sure, 2013 had maybe the worst 1st pick ever in Bennett. But Oladipo now looks like an All-NBA guard and Otto Porter is a solid SF.
Looking at 2014 top 3: Both Wiggins and Parker have turned out to be busts. Embiid is a legit superstar and will reach Hall of Fame if his body holds up.
But 2013 had 2 brilliant long limbed Euros who weren't even lottery picks in this "weakest draft ever". Giannis at 15th and Gobert at 27th. Both are extremely valuable franchise cornerstones now.
2014 had no HoF-quality sleeper talent picked in the 1st round (the closest to a jackpot pick is maybe Clint Capela at 25th). Then in the 2nd round there was Jokic taken 41st. But 2014 draft's first 11 picks (other than Embiid) have ALL turned out to be outright busts or simply average/below average/disappointing players.
Maybe the unpredictability of those things is worth keeping in mind before hyping the 2019 draft class to high heavens.
Big games are easy than the other games, unfortunately. Every times we have the control the games, under the control the games, during the games we had the some possibilities, some big chances, some big okazyons, something like that but what can I do, sometimes? AndÖ.itís the football, thatís the football, something happened. Everything is something happened. - Fatih Terim
Last edited by Andy Christ; November 5th, 2018 at 20:32.